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Explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Ethiopia: the role of monetary and fiscal policies

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  • Alemu Lambamo Hawitibo

    (Addis Ababa University
    University of Milan)

Abstract

A structural VAR approach is used to examine the role of monetary and fiscal policies in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Ethiopia. The main results are that an increase in government spending has an expansionary effect on output, while shocks in net taxes have a contractionary effect, with relatively small and statistically significant spending and net tax multipliers; that fiscal shocks are shown to have no significant effect on the exchange rate and a statistically significant effects inflation; that contractionary monetary policy is associated with a fall in output; and that the contributions of fiscal policy shocks are larger than that of monetary policy shocks in explaining movements in output, with roughly equivalent contributions coming from shocks in fiscal policy components. Moreover, the effect of fiscal and monetary policy shocks on output improved qualitatively and quantitatively when both policy variables were jointly examined rather than estimating them separately, suggesting the importance of joint analysis.

Suggested Citation

  • Alemu Lambamo Hawitibo, 2023. "Explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Ethiopia: the role of monetary and fiscal policies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1033-1061, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:ecopln:v:56:y:2023:i:2:d:10.1007_s10644-022-09459-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10644-022-09459-4
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Monetary policy; Fluctuations; SVAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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