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Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Colombia

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  • Ignacio Lozano
  • Karen Rodríguez

Abstract

The focus of this paper is on the short-term macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Colombia in a structural vector autoregression context. Government spending shocks are found to have positive and significant effects on output, private consumption, employment, prices and short-term interest rates. The cumulative output multiplier fluctuates between 1.12 and 1.19 from the first to third year after the spending innovation. Shocks to direct taxation seem to be less efficient, because they mainly affect private investment, whereas shocks to indirect taxation do not seem to affect real activities significantly. From a policy perspective, our results support the smoothing role of fiscal policy on output fluctuations, which implies its capacity to restore real activity effectively in critical times like the ones currently being forecast. From a theoretical standpoint, the results are consistent with real business cycle and Keynesian models of both traditional partial equilibrium and new general equilibrium types.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Lozano & Karen Rodríguez, 2009. "Assessing the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Colombia," Borradores de Economia 552, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:552
    DOI: 10.32468/be.552
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Hernando Vargas & Andrés Gonzalez & Ignacio Lozano, 2012. "Macroeconomic effects of structural fiscal policy changes in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 67, pages 119-160, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2015. "Growth enhancing effect of discretionary fiscal policy shocks: Keynesian, Weak Keynesian or Non-Keynesian?," MPRA Paper 65976, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Aug 2015.
    3. Andrés González & Martha López & Norberto Rodríguez & Santiago Téllez, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy with Oil Sector and non-Ricardian Agents," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE, November.
    4. Dante Cardoso & Laura Carvalho & Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Luiza Nassif-Pires & Fernando Rugitsky & Marina Sanches, 2023. "The Multiplier Effects of Government Expenditures on Social Protection: A Multi-Country Analysis," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2023_11, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    5. Hernán Rincón & Diego Rodríguez & Jorge Toro & Santiago Téllez, 2017. "FISCO: modelo fiscal para Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 35(83), pages 161-187, June.
    6. Alemu Lambamo Hawitibo, 2023. "Explaining macroeconomic fluctuations in Ethiopia: the role of monetary and fiscal policies," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 1033-1061, April.
    7. Cernadas, Luis, 2010. "Efectos macroeconómicos de la política fiscal: Evidencia empírica para Bolivia [Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from Bolivia]," MPRA Paper 39696, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    8. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2017. "How large are fiscal multipliers in Turkey?," EconStor Preprints 162763, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    9. Hernando Vargas & Andrés González & Ignacio Lozano, 2015. "Macroeconomic Gains from Structural Fiscal Policy Adjustments: The Case of Colombia," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 39-81, February.
    10. Carrillo, Paul A., 2010. "“Modelo Dinámico para Análisis y Pronóstico del Producto Interno Bruto”: Un Enfoque Fiscal Aplicando un Modelo SVAR [Dynamic Model for Analysis and Forecast of Gross Domestic Product': A Fiscal App," MPRA Paper 32005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Carrillo, Paul A., 2010. "Efectos Macroeconómicos de la Política Fiscal en Ecuador 1993-2009 [Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Ecuador 1993-2009]," MPRA Paper 34436, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2011.
    12. Martha Elena Delgado-Rojas & Hernán Rincón-Castro, 2017. "Incertidumbre acerca de la política fiscal y ciclo económico," Borradores de Economia 1008, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    13. Membreño, Luis & López, Jennifer & Jiménez, Kenneth, 2020. "Estimación de multiplicadores fiscales para Nicaragua con datos trimestrales de 2006 a 2018 [Estimation of fiscal multipliers for Nicaragua with quarterly data from 2006 to 2018]," MPRA Paper 105040, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 28 Dec 2020.
    14. Membreño, Luis & López, Jennifer & Jiménez, Kenneth, 2020. "Estimación de multiplicadores fiscales para Nicaragua con datos trimestrales de 2006 a 2018 [Estimation of fiscal multipliers for Nicaragua with quarterly data from 2006 to 2018]," MPRA Paper 105132, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 30 Dec 2020.
    15. Sergio Restrepo-Ángel & Hernán Rincón-Castro & Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro, 2020. "Multiplicadores de los impuestos y del gasto público en Colombia: aproximaciones SVAR y proyecciones locales," Borradores de Economia 1114, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    16. Stephanos Papadamou & Trifon Tzivinikos, 2017. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal consolidation policies in Greece," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(1), pages 34-49, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; government spending; taxation; structural vector autoregression.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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