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Multiplicadores de los impuestos y del gasto público en Colombia: aproximaciones SVAR y proyecciones locales


  • Sergio Restrepo-Ángel

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Hernán Rincón-Castro

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)

  • Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro

    () (Banco de la República de Colombia)


En el artículo se estiman multiplicadores de los impuestos y del gasto público para Colombia con técnicas de vectores autorregresivos estructurales y proyecciones locales estándar y suavizadas. Se utilizan series trimestrales del gobierno nacional central para el período 2000 a 2018. Los multiplicadores fiscales estimados son menores que la unidad, excepto cuando la economía experimenta una fase de contracción, cuando el del gasto resulta mayor. Los resultados en general se mantienen para diferentes esquemas de identificación y metodologías de estimación. **** ABSTRACT: This paper estimates multipliers of taxes and public spending for Colombia with techniques of structural autoregressive vectors and both standard and smooth local projections. Quarterly series of the central national government are used from 2000 to 2018. We estimate fiscal multipliers that are less than unity, except when the economy experiences a contraction phase, when that of spending is greater than unity. The results are generally maintained for different identification schemes and estimation methodologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Sergio Restrepo-Ángel & Hernán Rincón-Castro & Juan J. Ospina-Tejeiro, 2020. "Multiplicadores de los impuestos y del gasto público en Colombia: aproximaciones SVAR y proyecciones locales," Borradores de Economia 1114, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1114

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    Choques fiscales; Blanchard y Perotti; proyecciones locales estándar y suavizadas; multiplicadores; fiscal shocks; Blanchard and Perotti; standard and smooth local projections; fiscal multipliers;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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