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Assessing the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Ignacio Lozano
  • Karen Rodríguez

Abstract

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to study the short-term macroeconomic effects of the fiscal policy in Colombia for the 1980-2007 period using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. Design/methodology/approach - The authors' benchmark is a five-variable SVAR model which includes government spending, output, tax revenues, inflation and short-term interest rates. In addition, the authors specified six-variable VAR models, adding in turn private consumption, private investment, the unemployment rate and the real minimum wage to the last set of variables. Two alternative identification techniques are used in the VARs to check the robustness of the results. Findings - The following effects of a positive government spending shock are found. First, the GDP responds positively and significantly during the first six quarters. The cumulative output multiplier fluctuates between 1.12 and 1.19. Second, both inflation and nominal interest rates respond positively and significantly. Third, the authors find a significant positive response by both private consumption and private investment. Finally, the unemployment rate reacts negatively and significantly. Research limitations/implications - The most surprising result comes from the response of output to a positive shock in taxes. Nonetheless, the positive respond of the GDP is short lived and has little significance. Practical implications - The authors' results support the smoothing role of fiscal policy on output fluctuations, which implies its capacity to restore real activity effectively in critical times like the ones currently being forecast. Originality/value - The negligible results found previously for Colombia could be related to the fiscal data used, which are not keep coherence with national accounting. To solve these obstacles, a quarterly fiscal database is assembled on an approximately accrual basis for the general government.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Lozano & Karen Rodríguez, 2011. "Assessing the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Colombia," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 206-228, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eme:jfeppp:v:3:y:2011:i:3:p:206-228
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jorge E. Restrepo & Hernán Rincón, 2006. "Identifying Fiscal Policy Shocks In Chile And Colombia," Borradores de Economia 397, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Roberto Perotti, 2008. "In Search of the Transmission Mechanism of Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters,in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 169-226 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2006. "Some stylized facts on non-systematic fiscal policy in the Euro area," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 461-479, September.
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    8. Ignacio Lozano & Jorge Toro, 2007. "Fiscal Policy Throughout the Cycle: The Colombian Experience," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002730, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
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    15. Tenhofen Jörn & Wolff Guntram B. & Heppke-Falk Kirsten H., 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Exogenous Fiscal Policy Shocks in Germany: A Disaggregated SVAR Analysis," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 230(3), pages 328-355, June.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrés González & Martha López & Norberto Rodríguez & Santiago Téllez, 2014. "Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy with Oil Sector and non-Ricardian Agents," REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD, UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE, November.
    2. Cernadas, Luis, 2010. "Efectos macroeconómicos de la política fiscal: Evidencia empírica para Bolivia
      [Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from Bolivia]
      ," MPRA Paper 39696, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
    3. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2017. "How large are fiscal multipliers in Turkey?," EconStor Preprints 162763, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    4. Hernando Vargas & Andrés González & Ignacio Lozano, 2015. "Macroeconomic Gains from Structural Fiscal Policy Adjustments: The Case of Colombia," ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, ECONOMIA JOURNAL OF THE LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN ECONOMIC ASSOCIATION, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 39-81, February.
    5. Hernán Rincón & Diego Rodríguez & Jorge Toro & Santiago Téllez, 2017. "FISCO: modelo fiscal para Colombia," ENSAYOS SOBRE POLÍTICA ECONÓMICA, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA - ESPE, vol. 35(83), pages 161-187, June.
    6. Hernando Vargas & Andrés Gonzalez & Ignacio Lozano, 2012. "Macroeconomic effects of structural fiscal policy changes in Colombia," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 67, pages 119-160 Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Carrillo, Paul A., 2010. "“Modelo Dinámico para Análisis y Pronóstico del Producto Interno Bruto”: Un Enfoque Fiscal Aplicando un Modelo SVAR
      [Dynamic Model for Analysis and Forecast of Gross Domestic Product': A Fiscal App
      ," MPRA Paper 32005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. repec:eme:jfeppp:jfep-07-2016-0051 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Şen, Hüseyin & Kaya, Ayşe, 2015. "Growth enhancing effect of discretionary fiscal policy shocks: Keynesian, Weak Keynesian or Non-Keynesian?," MPRA Paper 65976, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Aug 2015.
    10. Carrillo, Paul A., 2010. "Efectos Macroeconómicos de la Política Fiscal en Ecuador 1993-2009
      [Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Ecuador 1993-2009]
      ," MPRA Paper 34436, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2011.

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