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Efectos macroeconómicos de la política fiscal: Evidencia empírica para Bolivia
[Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from Bolivia]

Author

Listed:
  • Cernadas, Luis

Abstract

Using a Structural Vector Autoregression approach (SVAR), the paper estimates the response of output, price levels, private investment and consumption to expansive and contractive fiscal shocks. The results show that government spending shocks have a positive effect on GDP. On the other hand, a tax increase has a negative effect on the output, through the contraction of consumption and private investment. By disaggregating government spending on consumption and investment, shows that growth in the short run would be motivated by increases in government consumption and public investment. However, in the long run public investment is the fiscal factor with greatest impact on economic growth. Finally, we find that after an increase in public spending, private investment reacts negatively (empirical evidence of a crowding-out effect). Also, higher spending volumes derived in permanent increases in the price level.

Suggested Citation

  • Cernadas, Luis, 2010. "Efectos macroeconómicos de la política fiscal: Evidencia empírica para Bolivia
    [Macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy: Empirical evidence from Bolivia]
    ," MPRA Paper 39696, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2011.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:39696
    as

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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/39696/2/MPRA_paper_39696.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wendy Edelberg & Martin Eichenbaum & Jonas D.M. Fisher, 1999. "Understanding the Effects of a Shock to Government Purchases," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(1), pages 166-206, January.
    2. Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin & Fisher, Jonas D. M., 2004. "Fiscal shocks and their consequences," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 89-117, March.
    3. Alesina, Alberto & Perotti, Roberto, 1997. "The Welfare State and Competitiveness," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(5), pages 921-939, December.
    4. Jordi Galí & J. David López-Salido & Javier Vallés, 2007. "Understanding the Effects of Government Spending on Consumption," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 5(1), pages 227-270, March.
    5. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436.
    6. Andrew Mountford & Harald Uhlig, 2009. "What are the effects of fiscal policy shocks?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(6), pages 960-992.
    7. António Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4439-4454, December.
    8. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
    9. Ignacio Lozano & Karen Rodríguez, 2011. "Assessing the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Colombia," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 206-228, August.
    10. repec:taf:applec:44:y:2012:i:34:p:4439-4454 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    12. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-334, June.
    13. Rodrigo Cerda & Luis Felipe Lagos & Hermann González, 2005. "Efectos Dinámicos de la Política Fiscal," Latin American Journal of Economics-formerly Cuadernos de Economía, Instituto de Economía. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 42(125), pages 63-77.
    14. Perotti, Roberto & Alesina, Alberto, 1997. "The Welfare State and Competitiveness," Scholarly Articles 4553027, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy; Structural VAR; Public Expenditure; Bolivia;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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