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Identifying the Effects of Government Spending Shocks with and without Expected Reversal: an Approach Based on U.S. Real-Time Data

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Abstract

This paper investigates how expectations about future government spending affect the transmission of fiscal policy shocks. We study the effects of two different types of government spending shocks in the United States: (i) spending shocks that are accompanied by an expected reversal of public spending growth below trend; (ii) spending shocks that are accompanied by expectations of future spending growth above trend. We use the Ramey (2011)’s time series of military build-ups to measure exogenous spending shocks, and deviations of forecasts of public spending with respect to past trends, evaluated in real-time, to distinguish shocks into these two categories. Based on a structural VAR analysis, our results suggest that shocks associated with an expected spending reversal exert expansionary effects on the economy and accelerate the correction of the initial increase in public debt. Shocks associated with expected spending growth above trend, instead, are characterized by a contraction in aggregate demand and a more persistent increase in public debt. The main channel of transmission seems to run through agents’ perception of the future macroeconomic environment.

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  • Jacopo Cimadomo & Sebastian Hauptmeier & Sergio Sola, 2011. "Identifying the Effects of Government Spending Shocks with and without Expected Reversal: an Approach Based on U.S. Real-Time Data," IHEID Working Papers 12-2011, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:gii:giihei:heidwp12-2011
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    Cited by:

    1. Sergio Sola, 2013. "Temporary and Persistent Fiscal Policy Shocks," IHEID Working Papers 06-2013, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    2. Marinko Škare & Saša Stjepanovi?, 2011. "Makroekonomski model Republike Hrvatske ( SSEM1) i mogu?i pravci izlaska iz krize," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 343-364.
    3. Dušan Zbašnik, 2011. "Napuštanje za?aranog kruga," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 527-535.
    4. Dragoljub Stojanov, 2011. "Mr. Keynes, Mr. Roosevelt i Vlada RH Zašto RH teško (ne)može promjeniti razvojnu paradigmu," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 329-342.
    5. Emily Anderson & Atsushi Inoue & Barbara Rossi, 2016. "Heterogeneous Consumers and Fiscal Policy Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(8), pages 1877-1888, December.
    6. Jacopo Cimadomo, 2016. "Real-Time Data And Fiscal Policy Analysis: A Survey Of The Literature," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 302-326, April.
    7. Osterloh, Steffen, 2018. "How do politics affect economic sentiment? The effects of uncertainty and policy preferences," VfS Annual Conference 2018 (Freiburg, Breisgau): Digital Economy 181614, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Roel Beetsma & Jacopo Cimadomo & Oana Furtuna & Massimo Giuliodori1, 2015. "The confidence effects of fiscal consolidations," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(83), pages 439-489.
    9. Dragan Tomaševi?, 2011. "Reindustrijalizacija Hrvatske - koji su preduvjeti zaokreta od potrošnog prema proizvodnom gospodarstvu, a da je zaokret i izvediv?," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 365-376.
    10. Damir Novotny, 2011. "Promjena paradigme u vo?enju ekonomske politike i strukturne promjene kao temeljne pretpostavke održivog rasta hrvatskog gospodarstva," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 313-328.
    11. Tihomir Domazet, 2011. "Okvir ekonomike na makro i mikro razini - odgovor na nove izazove," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 197-232.
    12. Nektarios Michail & Christos Savva & Demetris Koursaros, 2018. "Effects of fiscal consolidation on business confidence in the Euro Area," Economics and Business Letters, Oviedo University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 76-83.
    13. Jasmina Halebi?, 2011. "Utjecaj južnih multinacionalnih korporacija na gospodarstvo Bosne i Hercegovine," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 467-486.
    14. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    15. Marijana Ivanov & Guste Santini, 2011. "Uloga dopunskog kredita u poticanju poduzetni?ke aktivnosti i ekonomskog razvoja," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 233-270.
    16. Ivan Milenkovi? & Milenko Popovi?, 2011. "Politika deviznog kursa i stopa rasta u zemljama jugoisto?ne Evrope (na primerima Srbije i Hrvatske)," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 487-526.
    17. Sofija Adži?, 2011. "Povratak industrije u Srbiju - izme?u želja, mogu?nosti i iluzija," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 403-466.
    18. Mirko Mati?, 2011. "Polazne odrednice gospodarskog razvoja," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 271-278.
    19. Neven Vidakovic & Iva Mesi?, 2011. "Radna snaga i perspektive ekonomskoga oporavka u Republici Hrvatskoj," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 279-312.
    20. Kleis, Mischa & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel, 2016. "The long-run effect of fiscal consolidation on economic growth: Evidence from quantitative case studies," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-047, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government spending shocks; Survey of Professional Forecasters; Real-time data; Spending reversal; Fiscal multipliers.;
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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General

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