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Promjena paradigme u vo?enju ekonomske politike i strukturne promjene kao temeljne pretpostavke održivog rasta hrvatskog gospodarstva

Author

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  • Damir Novotny

    (T&MC, Zagreb)

Abstract

Hrvatska je kao i ve?ina tranzicijskih zemalja prihvatila neoliberalne reforme kao pristup vo?enju ekonomske politike i stvaranju preduvjeta za održivi ekonomski rast. Te su reforme po?etkom proteklog desetlje?a ostvarile odre?ene rezultate. Liberalizacija i privatizacija financijskog sektora je stvorila iznimno proto?an kanal za uvoz inozemne štednje i pove?ala ponudu novca te na taj na?in utjecala na eksplozivan rast doma?e javne i privatne potražnje. Velika svjetska financijska kriza, koja je svoje izvorište imala u slomu nekoliko investicijskih banaka u jesen 2008. godine, snažno je ograni?ila dotok inozemne štednje i time snažno pogodila doma?u potražnju. Doma?e gospodarstvo zapo?elo je sa slobodnim padom. Zaustavljanje pada o?ekuje se tijekom 2011., ali na zna?ajno nižoj razini ekonomske aktivnosti i zaposlenosti u odnosu na zadnju godinu prije izbijanja krize. Hrvatska je vlada vrlo kasno dijagnosticirala krizu. Umjesto fiskalnih (i monetarnih) mjera za poticanje oporavka, vladine politike su imale drugi smjer: spašavanje likvidnosti u javnom sektoru podizanjem poreznog optere?enja nije djelovalo samo prorecesijski ve? je produbilo strukturne probleme. Vladin program gospodarskog oporavka, temeljen na klasi?nom pristupu koji ostvaruje u?inke u dugim rokovima, uz visoku razinu zaduženosti javnog i privatnog sektora, pove?avaju vjerojatnost ulaska hrvatskog gospodarstva u dugoro?nu stagnaciju. Za pokretanje novog ciklusa rasta hrvatskog gospodarstva potrebno je potpuno napustiti dosadašnji pristup vo?enja ekonomske politike, te kreirati novi model temeljen na kombinaciji nastavka provo?enja tržišnih reformi (privatizacije), nove industrijske politike (strukturne promjene), fiskalne decentralizacije te snažnog paketa fiskalnih i monetarnih mjera koje ?e u kratkom roku djelovati na oporavak doma?e potražnje i potaknuti novi val investicija u privatnom sektoru.

Suggested Citation

  • Damir Novotny, 2011. "Promjena paradigme u vo?enju ekonomske politike i strukturne promjene kao temeljne pretpostavke održivog rasta hrvatskog gospodarstva," Ekonomija Economics, Rifin d.o.o., vol. 18(2), pages 313-328.
    • Handle: RePEc:eff:ekoeco:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:313-328
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    recesija; oporavak; novi pristup ekonomskoj politici;
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    JEL classification:

    • H0 - Public Economics - - General

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