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The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity over the Business Cycle: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Algeria

Author

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  • Chibi Abderrahim
  • Chekouri Sidi Mohamed

    (Faculty of Economics, University Centre of Maghnia, Maghnia, Algeria)

  • Benbouziane Mohamed

    (Faculty of Economics and Management, Tlemcen University, Tlemcen, Algeria)

Abstract

In this paper, we aim to analyze whether the effect of fiscal policy on economic growth in Algeria differs throughout the business cycle. To tackle this question, we use a Markov Switching Vector Autoregressive (MSVAR) framework. We find evidence of asymmetric effects of fiscal policy through regimes, defined by the state of the business cycle (recession and boom). The results show small positive government spending and revenue multipliers in the short term in both regimes. Most importantly, fiscal policy shocks have a stronger impact in times of economic recession than in times of expansion, which confirm the hypothesis of asymmetric effects. However, the impact of government spending is stronger than the impact of public revenue during recession periods. In addition, fiscal policy decision-makers interact with Anti-Keynesian view (pro-cyclical). Our results imply that there is something to gain by using the "right instrument" at the "right time".

Suggested Citation

  • Chibi Abderrahim & Chekouri Sidi Mohamed & Benbouziane Mohamed, 2019. "The Impact of Fiscal Policy on Economic Activity over the Business Cycle: An Empirical Investigation in the Case of Algeria," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:rmeecf:v:15:y:2019:i:3:p:23:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/rmeef-2016-0014
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    Cited by:

    1. Thiombiano, Noel & Ouedraogo, Salifou & Moussa, Abiboulaye, 2022. "Fiscal policy rules and economic fluctuations in the countries of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU)," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 252-263.
    2. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2019. "Debt sustainability, structural breaks and nonlinear fiscal adjustment: empirical evidence from Algeria," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 66(4), pages 369-397, December.
    3. Makambi, Steve & Muhindi, Reuben & Nduku, Gillian, 2017. "Influence of bank lending to the government on private sector credit in Kenya: A fiscal deficit specification," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 18, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
    4. Abderrahim Chibi & Sidi Mohamed Chekouri & Mohamed Benbouziane, 2019. "The dynamics of fiscal policy in Algeria: sustainability and structural change," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-27, December.
    5. Samer Mehibel & Yacine Belarbi, 2018. "Inflation Dynamics in Algeria," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 9(6), pages 174-187.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; economic activity; nonlinear effect; MSVAR model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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