Trigger Pointsand Budget Cuts ; Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity
We present and analyse an optimizing model which explains the counter-intuitive effects of fiscal policy in terms of expectations. If government spending follows an upward-trending stochastic process, which the public believes may fall sharply when it reaches specific `target points', then optimizing consumption behaviour and simple budget constraint arithmetic imply a non-linear relationship between private consumption and government spending. This theoretical relation is consistent with the experience of several countries.
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|Date of creation:||1991|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Israel TEL-AVIV UNIVERSITY, THE FOERDER INSTITUTE FOR ECONOMIC RESEARCH, RAMAT AVIV 69 978 TEL AVIV ISRAEL.|
Web page: http://econ.tau.ac.il/foerder/about
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