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Fiscal policy throughout the business cycle: the Colombian experience

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  • IGNACIO LOZANO

    ()

  • JORGE TORO

    ()

Abstract

This paper reviews the close relationship between business cycle and public fi nances in Colombia. The international evidence shows that cyclical movements in output systematically affect the balance of public fi nances. Therefore, the assessment of cyclical and structural components of the budget balance becomes an important tool in the analysis of fi scal policy, because it may allow fi scal authorities to determine the extent to which the fi scal stance in a particular year refl ects their discretionary actions. Our fi ndings indicate that the cyclical component of the central government balance in Colombia has been fairly small in recent times (for about 10% of the overall defi cit). Governments are not usually neutral during the business cycle. Ideally, they ought to practice a countercyclical fi scal policy to moderate the magnitude of output fl uctuations. However, in emerging economies, countercyclical fi scal policies are inhibited by domestic and external factors. Using a standard reduced form model closely connected to the government budget constraint, we fi nd that fi scal policy in Colombia has been procyclical over the last 45 years or so, with the primary surplus falling (and the defi cit rising) as a share of GDP by approximately 1/5th of a percentage point when the output gap increases by one percentage point.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Lozano & Jorge Toro, 2007. "Fiscal policy throughout the business cycle: the Colombian experience," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 25(55), pages 12-39, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:v:25:y:2007:i:55:p:12-39
    DOI: 10.32468/Espe.5501
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carolina Mejía Mantilla & Mauricio Cárdenas & Mauricio Olivera, 2006. "La economía política del proceso presupuestal en Colombia," Working Papers Series. Documentos de Trabajo 002988, Fedesarrollo.
    2. César Calderón & Roberto Duncan & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2004. "Institutions and Cyclical Properties of Macroeconomic Policies," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 285, Central Bank of Chile.
    3. António Afonso, 2008. "Ricardian fiscal regimes in the European Union," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 313-334, July.
    4. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez & Jesus Bejarano & Andres Gonzalez & Clark Granger-Castaño & Franz Hamann & Yurany Hernández-Turca & Juan Manuel Julio-Román & Martha López & Juan C. , 2019. "La política fiscal y la estabilización macroeconómica en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 90, pages 1-60, April.
    2. Enrique Alberola & Iván Kataryniuk & Ángel Melguizo & René Orozco, 2018. "Fiscal Policy and the Cycle in Latin America: the Role of Financing Conditions and Fiscal Rules," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 36(85), pages 101-116, April.
    3. Christian Daude & Ángel Melguizo & Alejandro Neut, 2010. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America: Countercyclical and Sustainable at Last?," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 291, OECD Publishing.
    4. Ignacio Lozano & Karen Rodríguez, 2011. "Assessing the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Colombia," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 206-228, August.
    5. Shijaku, Gerti, 2012. "Sustainability of fiscal policy: the case of Albania," MPRA Paper 79089, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Daude, Christian & Melguizo, Ángel & Neut, Alejandro, 2011. "Fiscal policy in Latin America: Countercyclical and sustainable?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 5, pages 1-29.
    7. Alejandro López-Vera & Andrés D. Pinchao-Rosero & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Non-Linear Fiscal Multipliers for Public Expenditure and Tax Revenue in Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 36(85), pages 48-64, April.
    8. Isidro Hernández Rodríguez, 2015. "Economía política de la tributación en Colombia," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Economía, edition 1, number 70, April.
    9. Hernando Vargas & Andrés González & Ignacio Lozano, 2015. "Macroeconomic Gains from Structural Fiscal Policy Adjustments: The Case of Colombia," Economía Journal, The Latin American and Caribbean Economic Association - LACEA, vol. 0(Spring 20), pages 39-81, February.
    10. Luis Ignacio Lozano, 2011. "Caracterización macro de la política fiscal en Colombia y postura frente a la crisis global (2008-2009)," Revista Cuadernos de Economía, Universidad Nacional de Colombia -FCE - CID, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Policy; Business Cycle; Stabilization; Defi cit; Budget;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems

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