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Fiscal Policy and the Cycle in Latin America: the Role of Financing Conditions and Fiscal Rules

Author

Listed:
  • Enrique Alberola
  • Iván Kataryniuk
  • Ángel Melguizo
  • René Orozco

Abstract

A stronger macroeconomic position when the financial crisis erupted allowed Latin American economies to mitigate its impact through fiscal expansions, temporarily reversing the characteristic procyclical behaviour of fiscal policy. At the same time, in the last two decades fiscal rules have been extensively adopted in the region. This paper analyses the stabilising role of discretionary fiscal policy over time, and the influence of fiscal financing conditions and of fiscal rules in said behaviour for a sample of eight Latin American economies. The analysis shows three main results: i) fiscal policies became countercyclical during the crisis, but they have turned procyclical again in recent years; ii) financing conditions are the key driver of fiscal procyclicality, while iii) fiscal rules tend to neutralise it. ****** La crisis financiera fue enfrentada por América Latina con una posición macroeconómica más sólida, lo que permitió mitigar su impacto con una expansión fiscal, en contraste con la tradicional prociclicidad de las políticas fiscales. Asimismo, en las últimas dos décadas ha proliferado el establecimiento de reglas fiscales en la región. Este artículo analiza el papel estabilizador de la política fiscal discrecional, y la influencia de las condiciones financieras y las reglas fiscales en tal comportamiento para ocho países de América Latina. El análisis obtiene tres principales resultados: i) la política fiscal fue contracíclica durante la crisis, y volvió a ser procíclica posteriormente; ii) las condiciones financieras determinan la prociclicidad de la política fiscal, mientras que iii) las reglas fiscales tienden a neutralizarla.

Suggested Citation

  • Enrique Alberola & Iván Kataryniuk & Ángel Melguizo & René Orozco, 2018. "Fiscal Policy and the Cycle in Latin America: the Role of Financing Conditions and Fiscal Rules," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 36(85), pages 101-116, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000107:017005
    DOI: 10.32468/espe.8506
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Yavuz Arslan & Gong Cheng & Richhild Moessner, 2020. "The fiscal response to the Covid-19 crisis in advanced and emerging market economies," BIS Bulletins 23, Bank for International Settlements.
    3. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 552, Bank for International Settlements.
    4. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Rocío Gondo & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Diego Urbina, 2016. "Output gaps and policy stabilisation in Latin America: the effect of commodity and capital flow cycles," BIS Working Papers 568, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Jung, Juan & Melguizo, Angel, 2020. "Rules, institutions, or both? Estimating the drivers of telecommunication investment in Latin America," MPRA Paper 105165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Guido Zacka & Daniel Sotelsekb, 2018. "Propuesta y diseño de una regla fiscal genérica," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 63(2), pages 7-8, Junio.
    7. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos & Feijó, Carmem & Araújo, Eliane Cristina de, 2021. "Do liberal policy regimes condemn Latin America to quasi-stagnation?," Textos para discussão 541, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    8. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez & Jesus Bejarano & Andres Gonzalez & Clark Granger-Castaño & Franz Hamann & Yurany Hernández-Turca & Juan Manuel Julio-Román & Martha López & Juan C. , 2019. "La política fiscal y la estabilización macroeconómica en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 90, pages 1-60, April.
    9. Gonzáles Zuazo, Rodrigo & Molina Fernández, José Miguel, 2017. "On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality: The case of Bolivia," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC-UCB), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 27, pages 39-56, May.
    10. Enrique Alberola & Rocio Gondo & Marco Lombardi & Diego Urbina, 2017. "Output gaps and stabilisation policies in Latin America: The effect of commodity and capital flow cycles," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 35(82), pages 40-52, April.
    11. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:71-85 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Jalles, João Tovar, 2021. "Dynamics of government spending cyclicality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 411-427.
    13. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Ricardo Sousa, 2017. "Assessing fiscal policy through the lens of the financial and the commodity price cycles," BIS Working Papers 638, Bank for International Settlements.
    14. Martin Ardanaz & Ana Corbacho & Alberto Gonzales & Nuria Tolsa, 2016. "Evaluating Fiscal Performance in Latin America and the Caribbean: Structural Balance Estimates from an Original Dataset," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 219(4), pages 67-92, December.
    15. Jean-Marc Fournier & Manuel Bétin, 2018. "Sovereign defaults: Evidence on the importance of government effectiveness," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1494, OECD Publishing.
    16. Sangita Misra & Rajiv Ranjan, 2018. "Fiscal rules and procyclicality: an empirical analysis," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 207-228, December.
    17. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez, Jesus Bejarano & Andres Gonzalez, Clark Granger-Castaño & Franz Hamann, Yurany Hernández-Turca & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, Martha López & Juan C. Mend, 2019. "La política fiscal y la estabilización macroeconómica en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, issue 90, pages 1-60, April.
    18. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2019. "Macroeconomic Institutions: Lessons from World Experience for MENA Countries," Working Papers 1311, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    19. Mar Delgado-Téllez & Esther Gordo & Iván Kataryniuk & Javier J. Pérez, 2020. "The decline in public investment: “social dominance” or too-rigid fiscal rules?," Working Papers 2025, Banco de España.
    20. Raúl-Alberto Chamorro-Narváez & Andrés-Camilo Santos-Ospina & Andrés-Felipe Urrea-Bermúdez, 2020. "Política fiscal subnacional y ciclos económicos regionales: análisis para el caso de los departamentos en Colombia, 2000-2016," Ensayos de Economía 019136, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    procyclical fiscal policy; fiscal rules; financing conditions; Latin America; política fiscal procíclica; reglas fiscales; condiciones financieras; América Latina;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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