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Fiscal policy and the cycle in Latin America: The role of financing conditions and fiscal rules

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  • Enrique Alberola
  • Iván Kataryniuk
  • Ángel Melguizo
  • René Orozco

Abstract

A stronger macroeconomic position when the financial crisis erupted allowed Latin American economies to mitigate its impact through fiscal expansions, reversing the characteristic procyclical behaviour of fiscal policy. At the same time, in the last two decades fiscal rules have been extensively adopted in the region. This paper analyses the stabilising role of discretionary fiscal policy over time, and the role of fiscal financing conditions and fiscal rules in this evolution in a sample of eight Latin American economies. The analysis shows three main results: i) fiscal policies became countercyclical during the crisis, but they have turned procyclical again in recent years; ii) financing conditions are confirmed to be a key driver of the fiscal stance, but their relevance has recently diminished; and iii) fiscal rules are associated with a more stabilising role for fiscal policy. Les économies de L’Amérique Latine se caractérisent par l’utilisation des politiques fiscaux procycliques. Face à la crise financière de 2008, la région a mis en place des politiques fiscaux contrecycliques qui ont mis en question cette caractéristique, normalement réserve aux pays développés. Néanmoins, ce progrès, qui voyait la politique fiscal comme une entité de stabilisation économique, pourrait être en train d’être renversé. Dans cet enjeu, les conditions de financement et le règles fiscal (dans une mineur niveau), utilise depuis les années 2000, ont joué un rôle important dans le dernier deux décennies. Ce document a cherché a identifié la évolution de la position fiscal (l’orientation budgétaire) depuis 1990. Également, ce document cherche à déterminer le rôle que le les conditions de financement et le règles fiscal ont joué pour déterminer cette orientation budgétaire. Les résultats montrent que la politique budgétaire était devenue contrecyclique pendant les années des cris mais dans les dernières années ils ont redevenu procyclique. Dans ce document les conditions de financement on était confirmé comme une des principales déterminantes de l’orientation budgétaire mais leur relevance a été dilué dans les dernières années. Finalement, l’article montre que les économies qui ont utilisé un règle fiscal sont associe avec un rôle plus stabilisateur de la politique fiscal.

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  • Enrique Alberola & Iván Kataryniuk & Ángel Melguizo & René Orozco, 2017. "Fiscal policy and the cycle in Latin America: The role of financing conditions and fiscal rules," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 336, OECD Publishing.
  • Handle: RePEc:oec:devaaa:336-en
    DOI: 10.1787/3c20eec1-en
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Ricardo Sousa, 2017. "Assessing fiscal policy through the lens of the financial and the commodity price cycles," BIS Working Papers 638, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Martin Ardanaz & Ana Corbacho & Alberto Gonzales & Nuria Tolsa, 2016. "Evaluating Fiscal Performance in Latin America and the Caribbean: Structural Balance Estimates from an Original Dataset," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 219(4), pages 67-92, December.
    3. Guido Zacka & Daniel Sotelsekb, 2018. "A generic fiscal rule: Proposal and design," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 63(2), pages 9-10, Junio.
    4. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Yavuz Arslan & Gong Cheng & Richhild Moessner, 2020. "The fiscal response to the Covid-19 crisis in advanced and emerging market economies," BIS Bulletins 23, Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Claudio Borio & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Fabrizio Zampolli, 2016. "Fiscal sustainability and the financial cycle," BIS Working Papers 552, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Rocío Gondo & Marco Jacopo Lombardi & Diego Urbina, 2016. "Output gaps and policy stabilisation in Latin America: the effect of commodity and capital flow cycles," BIS Working Papers 568, Bank for International Settlements.
    7. Jung, Juan & Melguizo, Angel, 2020. "Rules, institutions, or both? Estimating the drivers of telecommunication investment in Latin America," MPRA Paper 105165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jean-Marc Fournier & Manuel Bétin, 2018. "Sovereign defaults: Evidence on the importance of government effectiveness," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1494, OECD Publishing.
    9. Guido Zacka & Daniel Sotelsekb, 2018. "Propuesta y diseño de una regla fiscal genérica," Contaduría y Administración, Accounting and Management, vol. 63(2), pages 7-8, Junio.
    10. Sangita Misra & Rajiv Ranjan, 2018. "Fiscal rules and procyclicality: an empirical analysis," Indian Economic Review, Springer, vol. 53(1), pages 207-228, December.
    11. Levy, Antoine & Ricci, Luca Antonio & Werner, Alejandro, 2020. "The Sources of Fiscal Fluctuations," CEPR Discussion Papers 15450, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos & Feijó, Carmem & Araújo, Eliane Cristina de, 2021. "Do liberal policy regimes condemn Latin America to quasi-stagnation?," Textos para discussão 541, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
    13. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez, Jesus Bejarano & Andres Gonzalez, Clark Granger-Castaño & Franz Hamann, Yurany Hernández-Turca & Juan Manuel Julio-Román, Martha López & Juan C. Mend, 2019. "La política fiscal y la estabilización macroeconómica en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, issue 90, pages 1-60, April.
    14. Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez & Jesus Bejarano & Andres Gonzalez & Clark Granger-Castaño & Franz Hamann & Yurany Hernández-Turca & Juan Manuel Julio-Román & Martha López & Juan C. , 2019. "La política fiscal y la estabilización macroeconómica en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 90, pages 1-60, April.
    15. Gonzáles Zuazo, Rodrigo & Molina Fernández, José Miguel, 2017. "On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality: The case of Bolivia," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Instituto de Investigaciones Socio-Económicas (IISEC-UCB), Universidad Católica Boliviana, issue 27, pages 39-56, May.
    16. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2019. "Macroeconomic Institutions: Lessons from World Experience for MENA Countries," Working Papers 1311, Economic Research Forum, revised 21 Aug 2019.
    17. Enrique Alberola & Rocio Gondo & Marco Lombardi & Diego Urbina, 2017. "Output gaps and stabilisation policies in Latin America: The effect of commodity and capital flow cycles," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República - ESPE, vol. 35(82), pages 40-52, April.
    18. Mar Delgado-Téllez & Esther Gordo & Iván Kataryniuk & Javier J. Pérez, 2020. "The decline in public investment: “social dominance” or too-rigid fiscal rules?," Working Papers 2025, Banco de España.
    19. repec:bdr:ensayo:v:35:y:2017:i:82:p:71-85 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Raúl-Alberto Chamorro-Narváez & Andrés-Camilo Santos-Ospina & Andrés-Felipe Urrea-Bermúdez, 2020. "Política fiscal subnacional y ciclos económicos regionales: análisis para el caso de los departamentos en Colombia, 2000-2016," Ensayos de Economía 019136, Universidad Nacional de Colombia Sede Medellín.
    21. Enrique Alberola-Ila & Carlos Cantú & Paolo Cavallino & Nikola Mirkov, 2021. "Fiscal regimes and the exchange rate," BIS Working Papers 950, Bank for International Settlements.
    22. Jalles, João Tovar, 2021. "Dynamics of government spending cyclicality," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 411-427.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    financing conditions; fiscal rules; procyclical fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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