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La política fiscal y la estabilización macroeconómica en Colombia

Author

Listed:
  • Ignacio Lozano-Espitia
  • Fernando Arias-Rodríguez
  • Jesus Bejarano
  • Andres Gonzalez
  • Clark Granger-Castaño
  • Franz Hamann
  • Yurany Hernández-Turca
  • Juan Manuel Julio-Román
  • Martha López
  • Juan C. Mendez-Vizcaino
  • Jorge Enrique Ramos-Forero
  • Hernán Rincón-Castro
  • Diego Arturo Rodríguez-Guzmán
  • Jorge Hernán Toro-Córdoba
  • Héctor M. Zárate-Solano

Abstract

En este documento se ofrece evidencia sobre los aspectos macroeconómicos más importantes de la política fiscal en Colombia. En primer lugar, sobre su papel en la estabilización del ciclo económico en el corto plazo y sobre otros asuntos relacionados con la estabilización, como los impactos macro de la incertidumbre ocasionada por los cambios recurrentes en la tributación y la interrelación entre la política fiscal y la política monetaria. En segundo lugar, se evalúa la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública y el espacio fiscal disponible en la economía, factores que son cruciales para conocer el margen de discrecionalidad del gobierno en el mediano y largo plazo. Los hallazgos del trabajo contribuirán al debate sobre el manejo futuro de la política macroeconómica. En el frente fiscal, las acciones deberían encaminarse a alcanzar el doble objetivo de la sostenibilidad de la deuda pública y de estabilizar el ciclo económico. Sobre esta última cuestión, no se registran avances significativos a pesar de la regla fiscal estructural adoptada en 2011. ****** This paper provides evidence of the most important macroeconomic aspects of fiscal policy in Colombia. First, we review the policy’s role in the short-term stabilization of the business cycle, and other stabilization issues, such as the macroeconomic effects of the uncertainty caused by continuous changes to the tax regimes, and the links between the fiscal and monetary policies. Second, we assess the sustainability of the public debt and the fiscal space available, which are both crucial to determine the government’s discretionary margin in the medium and long terms. This analysis will enrich the current debate on the country’s future macroeconomic policy. On the fiscal side, the policy should keep the double aim of maintaining the public debt sustainable and stabilizing the business cycle. Despite the structural fiscal rule adopted in 2011, there has been no significant progress on the latter.

Suggested Citation

  • Ignacio Lozano-Espitia & Fernando Arias-Rodríguez & Jesus Bejarano & Andres Gonzalez & Clark Granger-Castaño & Franz Hamann & Yurany Hernández-Turca & Juan Manuel Julio-Román & Martha López & Juan C. , 2019. "La política fiscal y la estabilización macroeconómica en Colombia," Revista ESPE - Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, issue 90, pages 1-60, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:ensayo:y:2019:i:90:p:1-60
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    2. Lozano-Espitia, Ignacio & Julio-Román, J. Manuel, 2020. "Debt limits and fiscal space for some Latin American economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    ciclo económico; política fiscal; política monetaria y estabilización; déficit y manejo de la deuda; curvas de Laffer; riesgos e incertidumbre; Business Cycles ; Fiscal and Monetary Policies; Deficit and Debt Management; Laffer Curves; Risk and Uncertainty;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • E13 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Neoclassical
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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