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The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: A meta-analysis

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  • Heimberger, Philipp

Abstract

Whether fiscal policy exacerbates or counteracts fluctuations in the economy is a key policy issue, because it contributes to growth and inflation outcomes. However, existing literature provides partly contradictory findings. Therefore, we provide the first quantitative synthesis by applying meta-regression methods to a novel data set with 3536 cyclicality estimates from 154 studies. Our main findings are: on average, fiscal policy in advanced countries is countercyclical, but developing countries lean towards procyclicality. Furthermore, government spending policies exacerbate business cycle fluctuations more than tax policies. Finally, fiscal policy plans are more countercyclical than policy outcomes. Results are robust to tackling endogeneity between the business cycle and fiscal policy. While our analysis points to several stylised facts, it also highlights the importance of data and specification choices and allows for predictions concerning the cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy given best-practice assumptions on study design.

Suggested Citation

  • Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: A meta-analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:123:y:2023:i:c:s0264999323000718
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106259
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    Cited by:

    1. Ablam Estel Apeti & Bao-We-Wal Bambe & Jean-Louis Combes & Eyah Denise Edoh, 2023. "Original Sin: Fiscal Rules and Government Debt in Foreign Currency in Developing Countries," Working Papers hal-04130477, HAL.
    2. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "This time truly is different: The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy during the Covid-19 crisis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Aleksandr Arsenev & Philipp Heimberger & Bernhard Schütz, 2023. "The Cyclical Behaviour of Government Spending for Social Protection: Is the OECD Methodology Robust?," wiiw Working Papers 238, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.

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    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Automatic stabilisers; Business cycle; Meta-analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H11 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Structure and Scope of Government
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems

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