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Do fiscal rules constrain fiscal policy? A meta-regression-analysis

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  • Heinemann, Friedrich
  • Moessinger, Marc-Daniel
  • Yeter, Mustafa

Abstract

We implement a meta-regression-analysis for the budgetary impact of numerical fiscal rules. Based on 30 studies published in the last decade, we offer a consensus estimate with respect to the level of statistical significance, provide suggestive evidence for the effect size, and identify study features of relevance for the measured impact of fiscal rules. Overall, the results document a constraining impact of rules. However, this impact is weakened if refined identification strategies are employed. Moreover, the results provide evidence for a publication bias in which journals are more likely to report constraining and statistically significant effects compared to working papers. We further provide recommendations for future research on the budgetary impact of fiscal rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Heinemann, Friedrich & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Yeter, Mustafa, 2016. "Do fiscal rules constrain fiscal policy? A meta-regression-analysis," ZEW Discussion Papers 16-027, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:zewdip:16027
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    Cited by:

    1. Heinemann, Friedrich & Janeba, Eckhard & Schröder, Christoph & Streif, Frank, 2016. "Fiscal rules and compliance expectations – Evidence for the German debt brake," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 11-23.
    2. Tóth, Csaba G., 2017. "Own or inherited? The effect of national fiscal rules after changes of government," MPRA Paper 81178, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Zareh Asatryan & César Castellón & Thomas Stratmann, 2016. "Balanced Budget Rules and Fiscal Outcomes: Evidence from Historical Constitutions," CESifo Working Paper Series 5893, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Landon, Stuart & Smith, Constance, 2017. "Does the design of a fiscal rule matter for welfare?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 226-237.
    5. Asatryan, Zareh & Foremny, Dirk & Heinemann, Friedrich & Solé-Ollé, Albert & Stratmann, Thomas & Yeter, Mustafa, 2015. "Better fiscal rules for Europe: Reflections based on new empirical evidence," ZEW policy briefs 4/2015, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    6. Evers, Maria Theresia & Meier, Ina & Nicolay, Katharina, 2017. "The implications of book-tax differences: A meta-analysis," ZEW Discussion Papers 17-003, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    7. Heiko T. Burret & Lars P. Feld, 2016. "Effects of Fiscal Rules - 85 Years' Experience in Switzerland," CESifo Working Paper Series 6063, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Wolf Heinrich Reuter, 2016. "Design of fiscal frameworks and compliance with fiscal rules in CESEE," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 3, pages 29-40.
    9. repec:ksa:szemle:1732 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Reuter, Wolf Heinrich, 2017. "When and why do countries break their national fiscal rules?," Working Papers 01/2017, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal rules; meta-regression-analysis; public finances;

    JEL classification:

    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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