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Limiting Fiscal Procyclicality: Evidence from Resource-Rich Countries

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  • Michaelides, Alexander
  • Coutinho, Leonor
  • Georgiou, Dimitrios
  • Heracleous, Maria
  • Tsani, Stella

Abstract

We provide evidence that fiscal policy in resource-rich countries is strongly procyclical. The empirical analysis reveals that on average real government consumption in these countries tends to significantly rise (fall) in good (bad) times. To control for endogeneity we use an instrumental variable for GDP growth that arises naturally, namely the growth in commodity prices of the main natural resource export. We also find that fiscal policy procyclicality is lower in more democratic regimes, and that operating a sovereign wealth fund is more successful in limiting fiscal policy procyclicality than introducing fiscal rules.

Suggested Citation

  • Michaelides, Alexander & Coutinho, Leonor & Georgiou, Dimitrios & Heracleous, Maria & Tsani, Stella, 2013. "Limiting Fiscal Procyclicality: Evidence from Resource-Rich Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 9672, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9672
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    Cited by:

    1. Mohaddes, Kamiar & Raissi, Mehdi, 2017. "Do sovereign wealth funds dampen the negative effects of commodity price volatility?," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 18-27.
    2. Hoda Youssef & Ibrahim Elbadawi & Raimundo Soto, 2018. "Sovereign Wealth Funds and Macroeconomic Stabilization in the Home Economy," Working Papers 1175, Economic Research Forum, revised 29 Mar 2008.
    3. Wee Chian Koh, 2017. "Fiscal Policy in Oil-exporting Countries: The Roles of Oil Funds and Institutional Quality," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 567-590, August.
    4. Ashraf Galal Eid, 2015. "Budgetary Institutions, Fiscal Policy, and Economic Growth: the Case of Saudi Arabia," Working Papers 967, Economic Research Forum, revised Nov 2015.
    5. Heinemann, Friedrich & Moessinger, Marc-Daniel & Yeter, Mustafa, 2018. "Do fiscal rules constrain fiscal policy? A meta-regression-analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 69-92.
    6. Najm, Sarah, 2019. "The green paradox and budgetary institutions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    7. Tsani, Stella, 2015. "On the relationship between resource funds, governance and institutions: Evidence from quantile regression analysis," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 94-111.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commodity prices; Fiscal procyclicality; Fiscal rules; Natural resources; Sovereign wealth funds;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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