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Is Social Spending Procyclical?

Author

Listed:
  • Mr. Sanjeev Gupta
  • Alejandro Hajdenberg
  • Mr. Javier Arze del Granado

Abstract

This paper studies the cyclical behavior of public spending on health and education in 150 countries during 1987 - 2007. It finds that spending on education and health is procyclical in developing countries and acyclical in developed countries. In addition, education and health expenditures follow an asymmetric pattern in developing countries; they are procyclical during periods of positive output gap and acyclical during periods of negative output gap. Furthermore, the degree of cyclicality is higher the lower the level of economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Sanjeev Gupta & Alejandro Hajdenberg & Mr. Javier Arze del Granado, 2010. "Is Social Spending Procyclical?," IMF Working Papers 2010/234, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2010/234
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    2. Younes Zouhar & Jon Jellema & Nora Lustig & Mohamed Trabelsi, 2021. "Public Expenditure and Inclusive Growth - A Survey," Commitment to Equity (CEQ) Working Paper Series 109, Tulane University, Department of Economics.
    3. Clovis Freire & Nobuko Kajiura, 2011. "Impact of Health Expenditure on Achieving the Health-related MDGs," MPDD Working Paper Series WP/11/19, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP).
    4. Issouf Samaké & Mr. Nikola Spatafora, 2012. "Commodity Price Shocks and Fiscal Outcomes," IMF Working Papers 2012/112, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Claudia P�rez-Forni�s & Noelia C�mara & Maria Dolores Gadea, 2014. "Cyclical Properties of Spanish Defence Expenditure," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(1), pages 7-22, February.
    6. Cuesta, Jose, 2014. "Social Spending, Distribution, and Equality of Opportunities: The Opportunity Incidence Analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 106-124.
    7. Arze del Granado, F. Javier & Martinez-Vazquez, Jorge & McNab, Robert M., 2012. "Decentralized Governance and Preferences for Public Goods," MPRA Paper 42459, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Jan Veld & Martin Larch & Marieke Vandeweyer, 2013. "Automatic Fiscal Stabilisers: What They Are and What They Do," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 24(1), pages 147-163, February.
    9. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2013. "The cyclicality of education, health, and social security government spending," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(7), pages 669-672, May.
    10. Abbott, Andrew & Jones, Philip, 2021. "Government response to increased demand for public services: The cyclicality of government health expenditures in the OECD," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    11. Gang Chen & Brett Inder & Paula Lorgelly & Bruce Hollingsworth, 2013. "The Cyclical Behaviour Of Public And Private Health Expenditure In China," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(9), pages 1071-1092, September.
    12. Konov, Joshua Ioji, 2012. "Market Economy under Rapid Globalization and Rising Productivity," MPRA Paper 48750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "The Fiscal-Growth Nexus," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/01, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    14. World Bank Group, 2016. "Fiscal Space for Health in Bangladesh," World Bank Publications - Reports 30521, The World Bank Group.
    15. Rosella Cappella Zielinski & Benjamin O Fordham & Kaija E Schilde, 2017. "What goes up, must come down? The asymmetric effects of economic growth and international threat on military spending," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 54(6), pages 791-805, November.
    16. Thomas Roca & Hélène Ferrer, 2016. "Resilience to crisis through social protection: Can we build the case?," WIDER Working Paper Series 096, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Conor Keegan & Steve Thomas & Charles Normand & Conceição Portela, 2013. "Measuring recession severity and its impact on healthcare expenditure," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 139-155, June.

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