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The Fiscal-Growth Nexus

  • António Afonso
  • João Tovar Jalles

We assess the fiscal-growth nexus with a large country panel, accounting for the usually encountered econometric pitfalls. Our results show that revenues have no significant impact on growth whereas expenditures have negative effects. The same is true for the OECD with the addition that government revenue has a negative impact on growth. Taxes on income are usually detrimental to growth, as well as public wages, interest payments, subsidies and government consumption have a negative effect on growth. Social spending is detrimental to growth; spending on education and health boosts growth; and there is weak evidence supporting causality running from expenditures and revenues to output and TFP.

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File URL: http://pascal.iseg.utl.pt/~depeco/wp/wp012012.pdf
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Paper provided by ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon in its series Working Papers Department of Economics with number 2012/01.

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Date of creation: Jan 2012
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Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp012012
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Department of Economics, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, University of Lisbon, Rua do Quelhas 6, 1200-781 LISBON, PORTUGAL

Web page: https://aquila1.iseg.ulisboa.pt/aquila/departamentos/EC

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  1. Kumar, Saten, 2009. "Further Evidence on Public Spending and Economic Growth in East Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 19298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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  7. António Afonso & Miguel St. Aubyn, 2009. "Macroeconomic Rates Of Return Of Public And Private Investment: Crowding-In And Crowding-Out Effects," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 77(s1), pages 21-39, 09.
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  12. Julia Darby & Jacques Melitz, 2008. "Social spending and automatic stabilizers in the OECD," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 23, pages 715-756, October.
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  16. Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007. "Procyclicality or Reverse Causality?," Research Department Publications 4508, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  17. António Afonso & Juan González Alegre, 2007. "Economic Growth and Budgetary Components: a Panel Assessment for the EU," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/29, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
  18. Yongfu Huang & Jonathan Temple, 2005. "Does external trade promote financial development?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 05/575, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
  19. Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
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  21. Jong-Wha Lee, 1994. "Capital Goods Imports and Long-Run Growth," NBER Working Papers 4725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  22. Afonso, António & Furceri, Davide, 2010. "Government size, composition, volatility and economic growth," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 517-532, December.
  23. Eberhardt, Markus & Helmers, Christian & Strauss, Hubert, 2010. "Do spillovers matter when estimating private returns to R&D?," Economic and Financial Reports 2010/1, European Investment Bank, Economics Department.
  24. John Loizides & George Vamvoukas, 2005. "Government expenditure and economic growth: Evidence from trivariate causality testing," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 0, pages 125-152, May.
  25. Mark Hallerberg & Rolf Strauch, 2002. "On the Cyclicality of Public Finances in Europe," Empirica, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 183-207, September.
  26. Nelson, Michael A & Singh, Ram D, 1994. "The Deficit-Growth Connection: Some Recent Evidence from Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(1), pages 167-91, October.
  27. Arellano, Manuel, 2003. "Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245291, July.
  28. Landau, Daniel, 1986. "Government and Economic Growth in the Less Developed Countries: An Empirical Study for 1960-1980," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 35-75, October.
  29. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2007. "What We Really Know about Fiscal Sustainability in the EU? A Panel Data Diagnostic," Working Papers Department of Economics 2007/20, ISEG - School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, University of Lisbon.
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