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This Time They’re Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship between Debt and Growth

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  • Markus Eberhardt
  • Andrea F. Presbitero

Abstract

We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis takes particular note of theoretical arguments and data considerations in modelling the debt-growth relationship as heterogeneous across countries. We investigate the issue of nonlinearities (‘debt thresholds’) in both the cross- and within-country dimensions, employing novel approaches and diagnostics from the time-series literature adapted for use in the panel. Our findings suggest that whatever the shape and form of the debt-growth relationship, it differs across countries, so that appropriate policies for one country may be seriously misguided in another.

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  • Markus Eberhardt & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They’re Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship between Debt and Growth," Discussion Papers 2013/10, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
  • Handle: RePEc:not:notcfc:13/10
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    1. repec:taf:pocoec:v:28:y:2016:i:4:p:487-519 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Panizza, Ugo & Presbitero, Andrea F., 2014. "Public debt and economic growth: Is there a causal effect?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 21-41.
    3. Balázs Égert, 2015. "Public debt, economic growth and nonlinear effects: Myth or reality?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 226-238.
    4. Gbato, Andre, 2017. "Impact of taxation on growth in Subsaharan Africa: new evidence based on a new data set," MPRA Paper 80903, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Chudik, Alexander & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Raissi, Mehdi, 2013. "Debt, inflation and growth robust estimation of long-run effects in dynamic panel data models," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 162, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    6. repec:eee:phsmap:v:486:y:2017:i:c:p:883-894 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ugo Panizza & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "Public Debt and Economic Growth in Advanced Economies: A Survey," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 149(II), pages 175-204, June.
    8. repec:ibn:ijefaa:v:9:y:2017:i:11:p:173-193 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Ehrhart, Hélène & Minea, Alexandru & Villieu, Patrick, 2014. "Debt, seigniorage, and the Growth Laffer Curve in developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 199-210.
    10. Giampaolo Arachi & Valeria Bucci & Alessandra Casarico, 2015. "Tax structure and macroeconomic performance," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(4), pages 635-662, August.
    11. repec:eee:wdevel:v:103:y:2018:i:c:p:323-335 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Michał Kowalczuk & Andrzej Rzońca, 2016. "Heterogeneous determinants of local unemployment in Poland," Post-Communist Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 487-519, October.
    13. Burret, Heiko T. & Feld, Lars P. & Köhler, Ekkehard A., 2016. "(Un-)Sustainability of Public Finances in German Laender: A Panel Time Series Approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 254-265.
    14. Mitze, Timo & Matz, Florian, 2015. "Public debt and growth in German federal states: What can Europe learn?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 208-228.
    15. repec:taf:pocoec:v:28:y:2016:i:1:p:108-127 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Tiago Neves Sequeira & Marcelo Santos & Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes, 2017. "Income Inequality, TFP, and Human Capital," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 93(300), pages 89-111, March.
    17. José Augusto Lopes da Veiga & Alexandra Ferreira-Lopes & Tiago Neves Sequeira, 2016. "Public Debt, Economic Growth and Inflation in African Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(2), pages 294-322, June.
    18. Zixi Liu, 2015. "Do debt and growth dance together? A DSGE model of a small open economy with sovereign debt," Working Papers 2015.05, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    19. Sokbae Lee & Hyunmin Park & Myung Hwan Seo & Youngki Shin, 2014. "A contribution to the Reinhart and Rogoff debate: not 90 percent but maybe 30 percent," CeMMAP working papers CWP39/14, Centre for Microdata Methods and Practice, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    20. Andre Gbato, 2017. "Impact of Taxation on Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: New Evidence Based on a New Data Set," Post-Print hal-01673738, HAL.
    21. Puente-Ajovín, Miguel & Sanso-Navarro, Marcos, 2015. "Granger causality between debt and growth: Evidence from OECD countries," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 66-77.
    22. repec:taf:jnlbes:v:35:y:2017:i:2:p:250-264 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2015. "Deficit Rules and Monetization in a Growth Model with Multiplicity and Indeterminacy," Working Papers halshs-01199774, HAL.
    24. Laurent Callot & Mehmet Caner & Anders Bredahl Kock & Juan Andres Riquelme, 2017. "Sharp Threshold Detection Based on Sup-Norm Error Rates in High-Dimensional Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 250-264, April.
    25. Goldberg, Andrew & Romalis, John, 2015. "Public Debt and Growth in U.S. States," Working Papers 2015-10, University of Sydney, School of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    economic growth; public debt; common factor model; nonlinearity; summability; balance and co-summability; asymmetric ARDL;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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