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The debt-growth nexus in poor countries: a reassessment

  • Presbitero, Andrea F.

This paper investigates the relationship between external indebtedness and economic growth, with a particular attention to LICs, for which the theoretical arguments of debt overhang and liquidity constraint have to be reconsidered. The estimation of a growth model, with a panel of 121 developing countries, supports a negative and linear relationship between past values of the NPV of external public debt and current economic growth. This could be due to the ?extended debt overhang?, according to which a large indebtedness leads to misallocation of capital and discourage long-term investment and structural reforms.

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Paper provided by Kiel Institute for the World Economy in its series Economics Discussion Papers with number 2007-17.

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Date of creation: 2007
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:ifwedp:5531
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  1. Janvier D. Nkurunziza & Robert H. Bates, 2003. "Political Institutions and Economic Growth in Africa," CSAE Working Paper Series 2003-03, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
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  9. VJeffrey A. Frankel, 2005. "Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Contractionary Currency Crashes in Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(2), pages 149-192, September.
  10. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(3), pages 541-63, July.
  11. Andrea PRESBITERO, 2005. "The Debt-Growth Nexus: a Dynamic Panel Data Estimation," Working Papers 243, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
  12. Eduardo Lora & Mauricio Olivera, 2006. "Public Debt and Social Expenditure: Friends or Foes?," Research Department Publications 4465, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  13. Imbs, Jean & Rancière, Romain, 2005. "The Overhang Hangover," CEPR Discussion Papers 5210, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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  17. Anke E. Hoeffler, 2000. "The Augmented Solow Model and the African Growth Debate," CID Working Papers 36, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  18. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2007. "The debt-growth nexus in poor countries: a reassessment," Economics Discussion Papers 2007-17, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  19. David Roodman, 2006. "How to Do xtabond2," North American Stata Users' Group Meetings 2006 8, Stata Users Group.
  20. Richard Blundell & Steve Bond, 1995. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," IFS Working Papers W95/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
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  25. David Roodman, 2007. "A Note on the Theme of Too Many Instruments," Working Papers 125, Center for Global Development.
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  27. Tito Cordella & Luca Antonio Ricci & Marta Ruiz-Arranz, 2005. "Debt Overhang or Debt Irrelevance? Revisiting the Debt-Growth Link," IMF Working Papers 05/223, International Monetary Fund.
  28. Windmeijer, Frank, 2005. "A finite sample correction for the variance of linear efficient two-step GMM estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 126(1), pages 25-51, May.
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  30. Serven, Luis, 1997. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty and Private Investment: Analytical Issues and Some Lessons for Africa," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 6(3), pages 229-68, Supplemen.
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  32. Fosu, Augustin Kwasi, 2007. "Fiscal Allocation for Education in Sub-Saharan Africa: Implications of the External Debt Service Constraint," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 702-713, April.
  33. Cohen, Daniel, 1993. "Low Investment and Large LDC Debt in the 1980's," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 437-49, June.
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