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This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth

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  • Mr. Markus Eberhardt
  • Mr. Andrea F Presbitero

Abstract

We study the long-run relationship between public debt and growth in a large panel of countries. Our analysis takes particular note of theoretical arguments and data considerations in modeling the debt-growth relationship as heterogeneous across countries. We investigate the issue of nonlinearities (debt thresholds) in both the cross-country and within-country dimensions, employing novel methods and diagnostics from the time-series literature adapted for use in the panel. We find some support for a nonlinear relationship between debt and long-run growth across countries, but no evidence for common debt thresholds within countries over time.

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  • Mr. Markus Eberhardt & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They Are Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship Between Debt and Growth," IMF Working Papers 2013/248, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2013/248
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; growth; public debt; common factor model; nonlinearity; asymmetric ARDL; GDP ratio; descriptive analysis; growth rate; debt coefficient; linear regression; Stocks; Personal income; Debt burden; Financial sector development; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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