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Nonlinearities in the Relationship between Debt and Growth: Evidence from Co-Summability Testing

  • Markus Eberhardt

This paper employs novel time series methods to investigate the presence of nonlinearities in the long-run relationship between public debt and growth, analysing annual series for the United States, Great Britain, Japan and Sweden from the 1800s to 2008. We find only limited evidence for a nonlinear long-run relationship in these countries and further cannot support the notion that the equilibrium debt-growth relationship is identical across countries. Both results weaken the case for a common 90% or indeed any common debt/GDP threshold recently popularised by the work of Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and others.

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File URL: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/cfcm/documents/papers/13-06.pdf
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Paper provided by University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM) in its series Discussion Papers with number 2013/06.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:not:notcfc:13/06
Contact details of provider: Postal: School of Economics University of Nottingham University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD
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Web page: http://www.nottingham.ac.uk/cfcm/index.aspx

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  19. Markus Eberhardt & Christian Helmers, 2010. "Untested Assumptions and Data Slicing: A Critical Review of Firm-Level Production Function Estimators," Economics Series Working Papers 513, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
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  23. Balázs Égert, 2013. "The 90% Public Debt Threshold: The Rise and Fall of a Stylised Fact," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1055, OECD Publishing.
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