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The debt-growth nexus in poor countries: a reassessment

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  • Presbitero, Andrea F.

Abstract

This paper investigates the relationship between external indebtedness and economic growth, with a particular attention to LICs, for which the theoretical arguments of debt overhang and liquidity constraint have to be reconsidered. The estimation of a growth model, with a panel of 121 developing countries, supports a negative and linear relationship between past values of the NPV of external public debt and current economic growth. This is due to the ?extended debt overhang?, according to which a large indebtedness leads to misallocation of capital and discourage long-term investment and structural reforms. This work underlines the critical role of economic policies and institutions, the necessity of focusing on LICs and fostering macroeconomic stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Presbitero, Andrea F., 2006. "The debt-growth nexus in poor countries: a reassessment," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2006 22, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:gdec06:4745
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    Cited by:

    1. Knoll, Martin, 2013. "The heavily indebted poor countries and the multilateral debt relief initiative: A test case for the validity of the debt overhang hypothesis," Discussion Papers 2013/11, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    2. Samuel W. Malone, 2011. "Sovereign indebtedness, default, and gambling for redemption," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 63(2), pages 331-354, April.
    3. Johansson, Pernilla, 2008. "Debt Relief, Investment and Growth," Working Papers 2008:11, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    4. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2008. "The Debt-Growth Nexus in Poor Countries: A Reassessment," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-28.
    5. repec:eco:journ1:2017-05-6 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Catherine Pattillo & Hélène Poirson & Luca Antonio Ricci, 2011. "External Debt and Growth," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 2(3).
    7. Prokop, Jacek, 2012. "Bargaining over debt rescheduling," MPRA Paper 44315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Wamboye, Evelyn, 2012. "External debt, trade and FDI on economic growth of least developed countries," MPRA Paper 39031, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Andrea F. Presbitero, 2009. "Debt-Relief Effectiveness and Institution-Building," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 27(5), pages 529-559, September.
    10. Andrea F Presbitero, 2012. "Total Public Debt and Growth in Developing Countries," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 24(4), pages 606-626, September.
    11. Natia KUTIVADZE, 2011. "Public debt, domestic and external financing, and economic growth," Departmental Working Papers 2011-12, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    12. Sandra Marcelino & Ivetta Hakobyan, 2014. "Does Lower Debt Buy Higher Growth? The Impact of Debt Relief Initiatives on Growth," IMF Working Papers 14/230, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Robertson, Donald & Sarafidis, Vasilis, 2015. "IV estimation of panels with factor residuals," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(2), pages 526-541.
    14. Boukhatem, Jamel & Kaabi, Malèk, 2015. "Dette publique, qualité institutionnelle et croissance économique dans les pays de la région MENA : analyse par la méthode des moments généralisés
      [Public debt, institutional quality and economic g
      ," MPRA Paper 65756, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 23 Jul 2015.
    15. Markus Eberhardt & Andrea F. Presbitero, 2013. "This Time They’re Different: Heterogeneity and Nonlinearity in the Relationship between Debt and Growth," Discussion Papers 2013/10, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    16. Johansson, Pernilla, 2010. "Debt Relief, Investment and Growth," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 38(9), pages 1204-1216, September.
    17. Kathavate, Jay, 2013. "Direct & Indirect Effects of Aid Volatility on Growth: Do Stronger Institutions Play a Role?," MPRA Paper 45187, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Andrea Filippo Presbitero, 2009. "The 2008-2009 Financial Crisis and the HIPCs: Another Debt Crisis?," Mo.Fi.R. Working Papers 29, Money and Finance Research group (Mo.Fi.R.) - Univ. Politecnica Marche - Dept. Economic and Social Sciences.
    19. KPEMOUA, Palakiyèm, 2016. "La Dette Exterieure Handicape T’Elle La Croissance Economique Du Togo ?
      [Is External Debt A Brake On Togo’S Economic Growth?]
      ," MPRA Paper 77403, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 09 Jan 2017.
    20. repec:eee:wdevel:v:103:y:2018:i:c:p:323-335 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Prokop, Jacek & Baranowska-Prokop, Ewa, 2012. "The Efficiency of Foreign Borrowing: The Case of Poland," MPRA Paper 44976, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    External Debt; HIPC; Debt Relief; Economic Growth;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F34 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Lending and Debt Problems
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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