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Causality for the government budget and economic growth

Author

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  • António Afonso
  • João Tovar Jalles

Abstract

We use a panel of 155 countries for the period 1970 to 2010 to study the (two-way) causality between government spending, revenue and growth. Our results suggest the existence of weak evidence supporting causality from expenditures or revenues to GDP per capita and provide evidence supporting Wagner's law.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2014. "Causality for the government budget and economic growth," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(17), pages 1198-1201, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:21:y:2014:i:17:p:1198-1201
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2014.916383
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    2. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    3. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1997. "I Just Ran Two Million Regressions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(2), pages 178-183, May.
    4. Yongfu Huang & Jonathan Temple, 2005. "Does external trade promote financial development?," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 05/575, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    5. Romer, Paul M, 1990. "Endogenous Technological Change," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 71-102, October.
    6. Ram, Rati, 1986. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidencefrom Cross-Section and Time-Series Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 191-203, March.
    7. Arellano, Manuel, 2003. "Panel Data Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199245291.
    8. Stephen Bond & Frank Windmeijer, 2005. "Reliable Inference For Gmm Estimators? Finite Sample Properties Of Alternative Test Procedures In Linear Panel Data Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 1-37.
    9. Grier, Kevin B. & Tullock, Gordon, 1989. "An empirical analysis of cross-national economic growth, 1951-1980," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 259-276, September.
    10. Kumar, Saten, 2009. "Further Evidence on Public Spending and Economic Growth in East Asian Countries," MPRA Paper 19298, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Landau, Daniel, 1986. "Government and Economic Growth in the Less Developed Countries: An Empirical Study for 1960-1980," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 35-75, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso & José Alves, 2017. "Reconsidering Wagner’s law: evidence from the functions of the government," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 346-350, March.
    2. Livio Di Matteo & Fraser Summerfield, 2018. "The Shifting Scully Curve: International Evidence from 1870 to 2013," Working Paper series 18-01, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis.
    3. repec:mup:actaun:actaun_2018066051227 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General

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