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Reconsidering Wagner’s law: evidence from the functions of the government

Author

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  • António Afonso
  • José Alves

Abstract

We revisit Wagner’s law by function of government expenditure. Using data of 14 European countries between 1996 and 2013, we apply panel data and SUR methods to assess public expenditure–income elasticities. We find that some functions of government spending for a few countries (e.g. Austria, France, the Netherlands and Portugal) validate Wagner’s law. For the Netherlands, expenditures with environment protection increase more than proportionately to economic growth, and for France that is the case of spending in housing and community amenities. In addition, Greece is the only country where two public spending items react more than one to one to growth.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & José Alves, 2017. "Reconsidering Wagner’s law: evidence from the functions of the government," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 346-350, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:24:y:2017:i:5:p:346-350
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2016.1192267
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    Cited by:

    1. Jaejoon Woo, 2023. "The long-run determinants of redistribution: evidence from a panel of 47 countries in 1967–2014," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1811-1860, April.
    2. Afonso, António & Alves, José, 2025. "Does government spending efficiency improve fiscal sustainability?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 90(PA).
    3. Paparas, Dimitrios & Stoian, Andreea, 2016. "The validity of Wagner’s Law in Romania during 1995-2015," MPRA Paper 74378, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Philip Arestis & Hüseyin Şen & Ayşe Kaya, 2021. "On the linkage between government expenditure and output: empirics of the Keynesian view versus Wagner’s law," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 265-303, May.
    5. Muhammad Azam Khan & Salma Zahir & Sardar Fawad Saleem, 2026. "The role of inflation and institutional quality in shaping healthcare expenditure: Insights from Asia–Pacific countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 1-39, February.
    6. Hans Pitlik & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2022. "Kurzexpertise zu Abgabensystem und Ausgabenstrukturen im internationalen Vergleich. Ausgangssituation und Reformbedarf," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67988.
    7. Ravallion, Martin, 2019. "Global inequality when unequal countries create unequal people," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 85-97.
    8. Nupur Nirola & Sohini Sahu, 2020. "Revisiting the Wagner’s law for Indian States using second generation panel cointegration," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 241-263, May.
    9. Tewa Papy Voto & Nicholas Ngepah, 2024. "Personal income tax, redistribution and income inequality in Sub-Saharan Africa," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 71(2), pages 205-223, June.
    10. Emilian Dobrescu, 2018. "Functional trinity of public finance in an emerging economy," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 7(1), pages 1-27, December.
    11. Sedat Alataş & Erkam Sarı, 2021. "An Empirical Investigation on Regional Disparities in Public Expenditures: Province Level Evidence from Turkey," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 158(1), pages 217-240, November.
    12. Thi Lam Ho* & Le Hong Ngoc, 2026. "Empirical Assessment of the Impact of Corruption and Public Spending on Sustainable Development: Evidence from Method of Moments Quantile Regression," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 256(1), pages 3-39, March.
    13. António Afonso & José Alves & Najat Bazah, 2024. "Public Sector Efficiency and the Functions of the Government," Working Papers REM 2024/0357, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    14. Wensheng Xiao & Yu Tang & Bright Obuobi & Shaojian Qu & Minglan Yuan & Decai Tang, 2023. "The Influence of Rule of Law on Government’s Sustainable Economic Management: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(15), pages 1-23, July.
    15. Mohd Shahrol Nizam & Norimah Rambeli, 2022. "The Development of Growth Model with the Implication of Crisis Regime," Information Management and Business Review, AMH International, vol. 13(4), pages 39-51.
    16. Kyriakos Emmmanouildis, 2025. "Militarization’s effects on fiscal responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: an empirical investigation through a structural equation model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(7), pages 1-25, July.
    17. Wahyudi Wahyudi, 2020. "The Relationship between Government Spending and Economic Growth Revisited," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 10(6), pages 84-88.
    18. Martin Ravallion, 2018. "What might explain today's conflicting narratives on global inequality?," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-141, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    19. António Afonso & Sérgio Gadelha & Agatha Silva, 2020. "Public Debt And Economic Growth In Brazil," Working Papers REM 2020/0148, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    20. repec:rim:rimwps:18-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Martin Ravallion, 2018. "What might explain today’s conflicting narratives on global inequality?," WIDER Working Paper Series 141, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    22. Kyriaki Efthalitsidou & Eleni Zafeiriou & Konstantinos Spinthiropoulos & Ioannis Betsas & Nikolaos Sariannidis, 2021. "GDP and Public Expenditure in Education, Health, and Defense. Empirical Research for Greece," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-17, September.
    23. Fedotenkov, Igor & Idrisov, Georgy, 2021. "A supply-demand model of public sector size," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(2).
    24. Fedotenkov, Igor & Idrisov, Georgy, 2019. "A supply-demand model of the size of public sector and Wagner's law," MPRA Paper 94973, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Emanuela Macrì & Valeria Morea & Francesco Rania, 2025. "Stronger together? A semi-parametric approach to evaluate the productivity of higher education and cultural vibrancy in Italy," Journal of Cultural Economics, Springer;The Association for Cultural Economics International, vol. 49(4), pages 895-937, December.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence

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