IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/snbeco/v5y2025i7d10.1007_s43546-025-00859-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Militarization’s effects on fiscal responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: an empirical investigation through a structural equation model

Author

Listed:
  • Kyriakos Emmmanouildis

    (University of York Europe Campus)

Abstract

The present study explores the impact of pre-existing militarization levels on fiscal responses to the COVID-19 pandemic using a Structural Equation Model (SEM). Although the existing literature has addressed various determinants of fiscal measures, the relationship between a country's level of militarization and the magnitude of its fiscal responses remains understudied. Employing the Global Militarization Index (GMI) as a comprehensive measure along with military expenditures the paper provides estimates of both direct and indirect effects on fiscal packages. The results from a sample of 144 countries suggest that countries with a significant degree of militarization demonstrated reduced fiscal responsiveness to the challenges posed by the COVID-19 pandemic. According to the analysis, this is mainly due to the negative effects of the defense sector on countries' income, as income appears to be one of the main drivers of the fiscal measures. However, the disaggregation of the latter makes clear that the identified link between the military sector and fiscal intervention is attributed to effects on expenditures other than those devoted to the health sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Kyriakos Emmmanouildis, 2025. "Militarization’s effects on fiscal responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: an empirical investigation through a structural equation model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(7), pages 1-25, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:5:y:2025:i:7:d:10.1007_s43546-025-00859-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s43546-025-00859-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s43546-025-00859-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s43546-025-00859-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    2. McDonald Bruce D & Eger Robert J, 2010. "The Defense-Growth Relationship: An Economic Investigation into Post-Soviet States," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(1), pages 1-28, September.
    3. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    4. Mark Harrison & Nikolaus Wolf, 2014. "The Frequency of Wars," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: THE ECONOMICS OF COERCION AND CONFLICT, chapter 5, pages 121-149, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2003. "Domestic political and external security determinants of the demand for greek military expenditure," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 437-445.
    6. Selami Sezgin & Julide Yildirim, 2002. "The Demand for Turkish Defence Expenditure," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 121-128.
    7. Christina D. Romer, 2021. "The Fiscal Policy Response to the Pandemic," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(1 (Spring), pages 89-110.
    8. J. Paul Dunne & Ron P. Smith, 2020. "Military Expenditure, Investment and Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(6), pages 601-614, August.
    9. Cameron, David R., 1978. "The Expansion of the Public Economy: A Comparative Analysis," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 1243-1261, December.
    10. Ourania Dimitraki & Kyriakos Emmanouilidis, 2024. "Analysis of the Economic Effects of Defence Spending in Spain: A Re-Examination Through Dynamic ARDL Simulations and Kernel-Based Regularized Least Squares," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 908-930, October.
    11. Malcolm Knight & Norman Loayza & Delano Villanueva, 1996. "The Peace Dividend: Military Spending Cuts and Economic Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 43(1), pages 1-37, March.
    12. Bean, Charles & Pissarides, Christopher, 1993. "Unemployment, consumption and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 837-854, May.
    13. Joseph Kopecky, 2023. "Growing older and growing apart? Population age structure and trade," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 50(8), pages 1694-1709, February.
    14. Erdal Karagol, 2006. "The Relationship Between External Debt, Defence Expenditures And Gnp Revisited: The Case Of Turkey," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 47-57.
    15. Adem Y. Elveren & Sara Hsu, 2016. "Military Expenditures and Profit Rates: Evidence from OECD Countries," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 551-577, July.
    16. Pavel Yakovlev, 2007. "Arms Trade, Military Spending, And Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 317-338.
    17. Julien Malizard, 2016. "Military expenditure and economic growth in the European Union: Evidence from SIPRI’s extended dataset," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 38-44, October.
    18. Yemane Wolde-Rufael, 2009. "The Defence Spending-External Debt Nexus In Ethiopia," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(5), pages 423-436, October.
    19. Giorgio d’Agostino & J. Paul Dunne & Marco Lorusso & Luca Pieroni, 2020. "Military Spending, Corruption, Persistence and Long Run Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 423-433, June.
    20. Pieroni, Luca & d'Agostino, Giorgio & Lorusso, Marco, 2008. "Can we declare military Keynesianism dead?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 675-691.
    21. HongLi Fan & Wei Liu & Peter C. Coyte, 2018. "Do Military Expenditures Crowd-out Health Expenditures? Evidence from around the World, 2000–2013," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(7), pages 766-779, November.
    22. António Afonso & José Alves, 2017. "Reconsidering Wagner’s law: evidence from the functions of the government," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 346-350, March.
    23. Giorgio d’Agostino & John Paul Dunne & Luca Pieroni, 2019. "Military Expenditure, Endogeneity and Economic Growth," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 509-524, July.
    24. Russell Smyth & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2009. "A Panel Data Analysis of the Military Expenditure-External Debt Nexus: Evidence from Six Middle Eastern Countries," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(2), pages 235-250, March.
    25. Mamun, Shamsul Arifeen Khan & Rahman, Mohammad Mafizur & Khanam, Rasheda, 2020. "The relation between an ageing population and economic growth in Bangladesh: Evidence from an endogenous growth model," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 14-25.
    26. Malizard, Julien, 2015. "Does military expenditure crowd out private investment? A disaggregated perspective for the case of France," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 44-52.
    27. Natalia Utrero-González & Jana Hromcová & Francisco J. Callado-Muñoz, 2019. "Defence Spending, Institutional Environment and Economic Growth: Case of NATO," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(5), pages 525-548, July.
    28. Benoit, Emile, 1978. "Growth and Defense in Developing Countries," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 26(2), pages 271-280, January.
    29. Yukio Fukumoto & Tomoko Kinugasa, 2017. "Age Structure and Trade Openness: An Empirical Investigation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(6), pages 1247-1263, June.
    30. Pantelis Kalaitzidakis & Vangelis Tzouvelekas, 2011. "Military Spending And The Growth‐Maximizing Allocation Of Public Capital: A Cross‐Country Empirical Analysis," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 49(4), pages 1029-1041, October.
    31. Ram, Rati, 2009. "Openness, country size, and government size: Additional evidence from a large cross-country panel," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 213-218, February.
    32. Jenn-Hong Tang & Cheng-Chung Lai & Eric Lin, 2009. "Military Expenditure And Unemployment Rates: Granger Causality Tests Using Global Panel Data," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 253-267.
    33. Cristina Checherita-Westphal & Philipp Rother, 2011. "The Impact of Government Debt on Growth. An Empirical Investigation for the Euro Area," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 62(6), pages 1015-1029.
    34. Christos Kollias & Panayiotis Tzeremes, 2023. "Militarization, globalization and liberal democracy: a nexus?," Review of Economics and Political Science, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 9(1), pages 58-76, July.
    35. Joshua Aizenman & Reuven Glick, 2006. "Military expenditure, threats, and growth," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 129-155.
    36. Enrique Alberola & Yavuz Arslan & Gong Cheng & Richhild Moessner, 2021. "Fiscal response to the COVID‐19 crisis in advanced and emerging market economies†," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(4), pages 459-468, October.
    37. repec:bla:econom:v:63:y:1996:i:252:p:649-72 is not listed on IDEAS
    38. Hooker, Mark A & Knetter, Michael M, 1997. "The Effects of Military Spending on Economic Activity: Evidence from State Procurement Spending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 29(3), pages 400-421, August.
    39. J. Paul Dunne & Sam Perlo-Freeman, 2003. "The demand for military spending in developing countries: A dynamic panel analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(6), pages 461-474.
    40. John Paul Dunne & Eftychia Nikolaidou, 2012. "Defence Spending And Economic Growth In The Eu15," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 537-548, December.
    41. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    42. Dani Rodrik, 1998. "Why Do More Open Economies Have Bigger Governments?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(5), pages 997-1032, October.
    43. Ledyard Tucker & Charles Lewis, 1973. "A reliability coefficient for maximum likelihood factor analysis," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 38(1), pages 1-10, March.
    44. J. Paul Dunne & Ron Smith & Dirk Willenbockel, 2005. "Models Of Military Expenditure And Growth: A Critical Review," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(6), pages 449-461.
    45. Mark Broude & Saadet Deger & Somnath Sen, 2013. "Defence, innovation and development: the case of Israel," Journal of Innovation Economics, De Boeck Université, vol. 0(2), pages 37-57.
    46. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2020. "The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 86-104, January.
    47. Eftychia Nikolaidou, 2012. "Defence Spending, Economic Growth, Corruption And Inequality," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(6), pages 533-535, December.
    48. Vincenzo Bove & Jennifer Brauner, 2016. "The demand for military expenditure in authoritarian regimes," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 609-625, September.
    49. J Paul Dunne & Elisabeth Skons, 2021. "New technology and the U.S. military industrial complex," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 5-17, October.
    50. Ram, Rati, 1986. "Government Size and Economic Growth: A New Framework and Some Evidencefrom Cross-Section and Time-Series Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(1), pages 191-203, March.
    51. Mintz, Alex & Huang, Chi, 1990. "Defense Expenditures, Economic Growth, and the “Peace Dividend”," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(4), pages 1283-1293, December.
    52. Feder, Gershon, 1983. "On exports and economic growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1-2), pages 59-73.
    53. Eric S. Lin & Hamid E. Ali & Yu-Lung Lu, 2015. "Does Military Spending Crowd Out Social Welfare Expenditures? Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 33-48, February.
    54. Muhammad Shahbaz & Muhammad shahbaz Shabbir & Muhammad sabihuddin Butt, 2016. "Does Military Spending Explode External Debt in Pakistan?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(5), pages 718-741, September.
    55. Jakub Odehnal & Jiří Neubauer, 2020. "Economic, Security, and Political Determinants of Military Spending in NATO Countries," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 517-531, July.
    56. Mie Augier & Robert McNab & Jerry Guo & Phillip Karber, 2017. "Defense spending and economic growth: evidence from China, 1952–2012," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 65-90, January.
    57. Christos Kollias & Panayiotis Tzeremes, 2022. "Militarization, investment, and economic growth 1995–2019," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 17(1), pages 17-29, April.
    58. Malizard, Julien, 2015. "Does military expenditure crowd out private investment? A disaggregated perspective for the case of France," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 44-52.
    59. J. Paul Dunne & Sam Perlo-Freeman & Ron Smith, 2008. "The Demand For Military Expenditure In Developing Countries: Hostility Versus Capability," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 293-302.
    60. Alan C. Acock, 2013. "Discovering Structural Equation Modeling Using Stata," Stata Press books, StataCorp LLC, number dsemus, July.
    61. J Paul Dunne & Elisabeth Skons, 2021. "New technology and the U.S. military industrial complex," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 16(2), pages 5-17, October.
    62. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan, 2008. "Does Military Expenditure Determine Fiji'S Exploding Debt Levels?," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 77-87.
    63. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2019. "Military spending, economic growth and investment: a disaggregated analysis by income group," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 935-958, March.
    64. Uk Heo & Min Ye, 2016. "Defense Spending and Economic Growth around the Globe: The Direct and Indirect Link," International Interactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(5), pages 774-796, October.
    65. Jãœlä°De Yildirim & Selami Sezgin, 2002. "Defence, Education and Health Expenditures in Turkey, 1924-96," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 39(5), pages 569-580, September.
    66. Ward, Michael D. & Davis, David R., 1992. "Sizing up the Peace Dividend: Economic Growth and Military Spending in the United States, 1948–1996," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(3), pages 748-755, September.
    67. Muhammad Azam & Yi Feng, 2017. "Does military expenditure increase external debt? Evidence from Asia," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(5), pages 550-567, September.
    68. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2016. "Investment, growth, and defense expenditure in the EU15: Revisiting the nexus using SIPRI’s new consistent dataset," Economics of Peace and Security Journal, EPS Publishing, vol. 11(2), pages 28-37, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hanson Robert & Jeon Joo Young, 2024. "The Military Expenditure – Economic Growth Nexus Revisited: Evidence from the United Kingdom," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 30(2), pages 207-248.
    2. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis, 2024. "Military Spending and Economic Output: A Decomposition Analysis of the US Military Budget," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(2), pages 243-263, February.
    3. Tsitouras Antonis & Tsounis Nicholas, 2024. "Military Outlays and Economic Growth: A Nonlinear Disaggregated Analysis for a Developed Economy," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 30(3), pages 341-391.
    4. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2022. "Cross–Country Dependence, Heterogeneity and the Growth Effects of Military Spending," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(7), pages 842-856, October.
    5. Kyriakos Emmanouilidis & Christos Karpetis, 2020. "The Defense–Growth Nexus: A Review of Time Series Methods and Empirical Results," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 86-104, January.
    6. Dimitrios Karamanis, 2022. "Defence partnerships, military expenditure, investment, and economic growth: an analysis in PESCO countries," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 173, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    7. Dimitrios Dimitriou & Eleftherios Goulas & Christos Kallandranis & Konstantinos Drakos, 2025. "Military Expenditures and Economic Growth: Evidence from NATO and Non-NATO Alliances," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(3), pages 324-348, April.
    8. Sefa Awaworyi Churchill & Siew Ling Yew, 2018. "The effect of military expenditure on growth: an empirical synthesis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1357-1387, November.
    9. Ourania Dimitraki & Kyriakos Emmanouilidis, 2024. "Analysis of the Economic Effects of Defence Spending in Spain: A Re-Examination Through Dynamic ARDL Simulations and Kernel-Based Regularized Least Squares," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(7), pages 908-930, October.
    10. Mie Augier & Robert McNab & Jerry Guo & Phillip Karber, 2017. "Defense spending and economic growth: evidence from China, 1952–2012," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 65-90, January.
    11. Alessandra Cepparulo & Paolo Pasimeni, 2024. "Defence Spending in the European Union," European Economy - Discussion Papers 199, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    12. Duygu Yolcu Karadam & Jülide Yildirim & Nadir Öcal, 2017. "Military expenditure and economic growth in Middle Eastern countries and Turkey: a non-linear panel data approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(6), pages 719-730, November.
    13. Lukasz Wiktor Olejnik, 2023. "Economic growth and military expenditure in the countries on NATOʼs Eastern flank in 1999–2021," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2023-2, Bank of Estonia, revised 09 May 2023.
    14. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah & Christian Nsiah, 2020. "Convergence in military expenditure and economic growth in Africa and its regional economic communities: evidence from a club clustering algorithm," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1832344-183, January.
    15. Alptekin, Aynur & Levine, Paul, 2012. "Military expenditure and economic growth: A meta-analysis," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 636-650.
    16. Charles Shaaba Saba & Nicholas Ngepah, 2022. "Nexus between telecommunication infrastructures, defence and economic growth: a global evidence," Netnomics, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 139-177, October.
    17. Mohamed Maher & Yanzhi Zhao, 2022. "Do Political Instability and Military Expenditure Undermine Economic Growth in Egypt? Evidence from the ARDL Approach," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(8), pages 956-979, November.
    18. Garfinkel, Michelle R. & Skaperdas, Stergios (ed.), 2012. "The Oxford Handbook of the Economics of Peace and Conflict," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195392777.
    19. Christos Kollias & Suzanna-Maria Paleologou, 2019. "Military spending, economic growth and investment: a disaggregated analysis by income group," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 935-958, March.
    20. Manamperi, Nimantha, 2016. "Does military expenditure hinder economic growth? Evidence from Greece and Turkey," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(6), pages 1171-1193.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C31 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models; Quantile Regressions; Social Interaction Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:5:y:2025:i:7:d:10.1007_s43546-025-00859-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.