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Implications of Population Aging for Economic Growth

  • David E. Bloom
  • David Canning
  • Günther Fink

The share of the population aged 60 and over is projected to increase in nearly every country in the world during 2005-2050. Population ageing will tend to lower both labor-force participation and savings rates, thereby raising concerns about a future slowing of economic growth. Our calculations suggest that OECD countries are likely to see modest - but not catastrophic - declines in the rate of economic growth. However, behavioral responses (including greater female labor force participation) and policy reforms (including an increase in the legal age of retirement) can mitigate the economic consequences of an older population. In most non-OECD countries, declining fertility rates will cause labor-force-to-population ratios to rise as the shrinking share of young people will more than offset the skewing of adults toward the older ages. These factors suggest that population ageing will not significantly impede the pace of economic growth in developing countries.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w16705.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 16705.

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Date of creation: Jan 2011
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Publication status: published as David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:16705
Note: AG EFG LS
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  1. Kulish Mariano & Kent Christopher & Smith Kathryn, 2010. "Aging, Retirement, and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, July.
  2. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life-cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, 09.
  3. David E. BLOOM & Jocelyn E. FINLAY, 2009. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 4(1), pages 45-64.
  4. Andrew Mason & Ronald Lee & An-Chi Tung & Mun-Sim Lai & Tim Miller, 2009. "Population Aging and Intergenerational Transfers: Introducing Age into National Accounts," NBER Chapters, in: Developments in the Economics of Aging, pages 89-122 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Robert W. Fogel, 1994. "Economic Growth, Population Theory, and Physiology: The Bearing of Long-Term Processes on the Making of Economic Policy," NBER Working Papers 4638, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. James Poterba, 2004. "The Impact of Population Aging on Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 10851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Pia N. Malaney, 1999. "Demographic Change and Economic Growth in Asia," CID Working Papers 15, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
  8. David Bloom & David Canning & Rick Mansfield & Michael Moore, 2006. "Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings," PGDA Working Papers 1906, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  9. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn E. Finlay, 2009. "The Cost of Low Fertility in Europe," NBER Working Papers 14820, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Warwick J. McKibbin, 2005. "The Global Macroeconomic Consequences Of A Demographic Transition," CAMA Working Papers 2006-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  11. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2005. "Global Demographic Change: Dimensions and Economic Significance," PGDA Working Papers 0105, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  12. Laitner, John, 2007. "Comment on: David Bloom, David Canning, Rick Mansfield, and Michael Moore's "Demographic change, social security systems, and savings"," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 115-117, January.
  13. David Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink & Jocelyn Finlay, 2009. "Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 79-101, June.
  14. David E. Bloom & Ajay Mahal & Larry Rosenberg & Jaypee Sevilla, 2010. "Economic security arrangements in the context of population ageing in India," PGDA Working Papers 6010, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
  15. Dora L. Costa, 1998. "The Evolution of Retirement: An American Economic History, 1880-1990," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number cost98-1, October.
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