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Aging, Retirement, and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Kulish Mariano

    () (Reserve Bank of Austrlia)

  • Kent Christopher

    () (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Smith Kathryn

    () (Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency)

Abstract

We study some economic consequences of aging in a general equilibrium overlapping generations model in which agents make optimal retirement decisions. The transitional dynamics of the economy are sensitive to the nature of the aging process, that is, the balance of declining fertility and rising longevity. Population aging unambiguously increases capital intensity in the long-run, but a rise in longevity that improves the health of the population will delay retirement and consequently decrease capital intensity in the short-run. The joint long-run effect of declining fertility and rising longevity on capital intensity is more than additive.

Suggested Citation

  • Kulish Mariano & Kent Christopher & Smith Kathryn, 2010. "Aging, Retirement, and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:bpj:bejmac:v:10:y:2010:i:1:n:18
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    2. Huw Brokensha & Andrew Taylor & Tony Barnes, 2017. "Changing Australia’s Age Pension Qualification Age: Modelling Differential Effects by Race," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(2), pages 203-229, April.
    3. Ross Guest & Anthony J Makin, 2012. "Fiscal stimulus: an overlapping generations analysis," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 17(2), pages 1-25, September.
    4. repec:acb:cbeeco:2014-616 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Kudrna, George & Woodland, Alan, 2011. "An inter-temporal general equilibrium analysis of the Australian age pension means test," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 61-79, March.
    6. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Gunther Fink, 2009. "The Graying of Global Population and Its Macroeconomic Consequences," PGDA Working Papers 4709, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    7. George Kudrna & Alan D. Woodland, 2015. "Progressive Tax Changes to Superannuation in a Lifecycle Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 5645, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. David E Bloom & David Canning, 2006. "Global Demography: Fact, Force and Future," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.), Demography and Financial Markets Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. George Kudrna & Alan Woodland, 2012. "Progressive Tax Changes to Private Pensions in a Life-Cycle Framework," Working Papers 201209, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
    10. George Kudrna & Chung Tran & Alan Woodland, 2015. "Facing Demographic Challenges: Pension Cuts or Tax Hikes," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2015-626, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    11. Creedy, John & Guest, Ross, 2008. "Changes in the taxation of private pensions: Macroeconomic and welfare effects," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 693-712.
    12. Chung Tran, 2014. "Temptation and Taxation with Elastic Labor," ANU Working Papers in Economics and Econometrics 2014-617, Australian National University, College of Business and Economics, School of Economics.
    13. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore & Younghwan Song, 2007. "The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States," Chapters,in: Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy, chapter 4 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. repec:eee:hapoch:v1_713 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Ross Guest, 2013. "Intergenerational Smoothing of New Zealand’s Future Fiscal Costs," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/12, New Zealand Treasury.
    16. Deborah Schofield & Rupendra Shrestha & Simon Kelly & Lennert Veerman & Robert Tanton & Megan Passey & Theo Vos & Michelle Cunich & Emily Callander, 2014. "Health&WealthMOD2030: A Microsimulation Model of the Long Term Economic Impacts of Disease Leading to Premature Retirements of Australians Aged 45-64 Years Old," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 7(2), pages 94-118.
    17. Lees, Kirdan, 2013. "Golden years? The impacts of New Zealand’s ageing on wages, interest rates, wealth and macroeconomy," NZIER Working Paper 2013/1, New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.
    18. Michael Spence & Danny Leipziger, 2010. "Globalization and Growth - Implications for a Post-Crisis World : Commission on Growth and Development," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2440, July.
    19. Christopher Kent & Crystal Ossolinski & Luke Willard, 2007. "The Rise of Household Indebtedness," RBA Annual Conference Volume,in: Christopher Kent & Jeremy Lawson (ed.), The Structure and Resilience of the Financial System Reserve Bank of Australia.
    20. Jamie Hall & Andrew Stone, 2010. "Demography and Growth," RBA Bulletin, Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 15-23, June.
    21. Knell, Markus, 2013. "The Intergenerational Distribution of Demographic Fluctuations in Unfunded and Funded Pension Systems," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79830, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    22. Oksanen, Heikki, 2014. "Public finance sustainability gap and raising the retirement age, abstract and full summary," Research Reports 177, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    23. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2015. "The dynamic fiscal effects of demographic shift: The case of Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-122.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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