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Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy

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  • Miles, David

Abstract

Over the next few decades, there will be significant changes in the demographic structure of nearly all developed countries. Such dramatic demographic change could have a powerful impact upon saving behavior but estimates of how great the effects will be differ depending on what evidence is used. This paper argues that simulations based on calibrated general equilibrium models are likely to provide the most reliable evidence. A model is developed and is used to assess the impact of reforms to pension systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecj:econjl:v:109:y:1999:i:452:p:1-36
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    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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