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Ageing, Retirement and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis

Author

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  • Mariano Kulish

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Kathryn Smith

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

  • Christopher Kent

    (Reserve Bank of Australia)

Abstract

This paper studies the macroeconomic consequences of ageing in an overlapping-generations model with endogenous retirement. We study the behaviour of the economy when population ageing is driven by movements in fertility, changes in longevity, and a combination of both. To gauge the economic implications of these demographic changes we calibrate the model to match key features of the Australian economy. With either a fall in fertility or a rise in longevity, population ageing increases capital intensity in the long run. When fertility and longevity operate together, the increase in capital intensity is more than additive, and the share of life spent in retirement stays roughly constant. The dynamic response of the economy is sensitive to the relative strength of the two factors that drive ageing.

Suggested Citation

  • Mariano Kulish & Kathryn Smith & Christopher Kent, 2006. "Ageing, Retirement and Savings: A General Equilibrium Analysis," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2006-06, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    • Handle: RePEc:rba:rbardp:rdp2006-06
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Günther Fink, 2010. "Implications of population ageing for economic growth," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(4), pages 583-612, Winter.
    2. repec:acb:cbeeco:2014-616 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Gunther Fink, 2009. "The Graying of Global Population and Its Macroeconomic Consequences," PGDA Working Papers 4709, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    4. George Kudrna & Alan Woodland, 2012. "Progressive Tax Changes to Private Pensions in a Life-Cycle Framework," Working Papers 201209, ARC Centre of Excellence in Population Ageing Research (CEPAR), Australian School of Business, University of New South Wales.
    5. George Kudrna & Chung Tran & Alan D. Woodland, 2015. "Facing Demographic Challenges: Pension Cuts or Tax Hikes," CESifo Working Paper Series 5644, CESifo.
    6. Creedy, John & Guest, Ross, 2008. "Changes in the taxation of private pensions: Macroeconomic and welfare effects," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 693-712.
    7. Ross Guest & Anthony J Makin, 2012. "Fiscal stimulus: an overlapping generations analysis," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 17(2), pages 1-25, September.
    8. Tran, Chung, 2018. "Temptation and taxation with elastic labor," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 351-369.
    9. Woodland, A., 2016. "Taxation, Pensions, and Demographic Change," Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, in: Piggott, John & Woodland, Alan (ed.),Handbook of the Economics of Population Aging, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 713-780, Elsevier.
    10. Christopher Kent & Crystal Ossolinski & Luke Willard, 2007. "The Rise of Household Indebtedness," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Jeremy Lawson (ed.),The Structure and Resilience of the Financial System, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    11. Jamie Hall & Andrew Stone, 2010. "Demography and Growth," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 15-23, June.
    12. David E Bloom & David Canning, 2006. "Global Demography: Fact, Force and Future," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Christopher Kent & Anna Park & Daniel Rees (ed.),Demography and Financial Markets, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Michael Moore & Younghwan Song, 2007. "The Effect of Subjective Survival Probabilities on Retirement and Wealth in the United States," Chapters, in: Robert L. Clark & Naohiro Ogawa & Andrew Mason (ed.),Population Aging, Intergenerational Transfers and the Macroeconomy, chapter 4, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    14. Huw Brokensha & Andrew Taylor & Tony Barnes, 2017. "Changing Australia’s Age Pension Qualification Age: Modelling Differential Effects by Race," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(2), pages 203-229, April.
    15. Kudrna, George & Woodland, Alan, 2011. "An inter-temporal general equilibrium analysis of the Australian age pension means test," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 61-79, March.
    16. Kudrna,George & Alan D. Woodland, 2015. "Progressive Tax Changes to Superannuation in a Lifecycle Framework," CESifo Working Paper Series 5645, CESifo.
    17. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2019. "Facing Demographic Challenges: Pension Cuts Or Tax Hikes?," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 23(2), pages 625-673, March.
    18. Pu Liao & Hui Su & Dragan Pamučar, 2020. "Will Ending the One-Child Policy and Raising the Retirement Age Enhance the Sustainability of China’s Basic Pension System?," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(19), pages 1-1, October.
    19. Ross Guest, 2013. "Intergenerational Smoothing of New Zealand’s Future Fiscal Costs," Treasury Working Paper Series 13/12, New Zealand Treasury.
    20. Deborah Schofield & Rupendra Shrestha & Simon Kelly & Lennert Veerman & Robert Tanton & Megan Passey & Theo Vos & Michelle Cunich & Emily Callander, 2014. "Health&WealthMOD2030: A Microsimulation Model of the Long Term Economic Impacts of Disease Leading to Premature Retirements of Australians Aged 45-64 Years Old," International Journal of Microsimulation, International Microsimulation Association, vol. 7(2), pages 94-118.
    21. Lees, Kirdan, 2013. "Golden years? The impacts of New Zealand’s ageing on wages, interest rates, wealth and macroeconomy," NZIER Working Paper 2013/1, New Zealand Institute of Economic Research.
    22. Michael Spence & Danny Leipziger, 2010. "Globalization and Growth - Implications for a Post-Crisis World : Commission on Growth and Development," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2440, June.
    23. Knell, Markus, 2013. "The Intergenerational Distribution of Demographic Fluctuations in Unfunded and Funded Pension Systems," VfS Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79830, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    24. Oksanen, Heikki, 2014. "Public finance sustainability gap and raising the retirement age, abstract and full summary," Research Reports 177, VATT Institute for Economic Research.
    25. Kudrna, George & Tran, Chung & Woodland, Alan, 2015. "The dynamic fiscal effects of demographic shift: The case of Australia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 105-122.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    baby boom; endogenous retirement; longevity; OLG (overlapping generations);

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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