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Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: a multi-country simulation model

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  • Börsch-Supan, Axel
  • Ludwig, Alexander
  • Winter, Joachim

Abstract

In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis of the international capital flows induced by differences in population aging processes across countries and by pension reforms. In the vast majority of countries, demographic change will continue well into the 21st century. It is well known that within each country, demographic change alters the time path of aggregate savings, even more so in countries where fundamental pension reforms and shifts towards more pre-funding are implemented. While the patterns of population aging are similar in most countries, the timing differs substantially, in particular between industrialized and less developed countries. To the extent that capital is internationally mobile, population aging will therefore induce capital flows between countries. In order to quantify these effects, we develop a stylized multi-country overlapping generations model, and we use long-term demographic projections for several world regions to simulate international capital flows over a 50 year horizon. Our simulations suggest that capital flows from fast-aging industrial countries such as Germany to the rest of the world will be substantial. Closed-economy models of pen-sion reform are likely to miss quantitatively important effects of international capital mobility.

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  • Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2001. "Aging, pension reform, and capital flows: a multi-country simulation model," Papers 01-08, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
  • Handle: RePEc:mnh:spaper:2813
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    aging ; pension reform ; capital mobility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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