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Macroeconomic consequences of pension reforms in Europe: an investigation with the INGENUE world model

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  • Equipe INGENUE

Abstract

This paper presents some results of the computable, general-equilibrium, multiregional overlapping-generations model INGENUE. The purpose of this research is to analyse the issues relating to wealth accumulation and alternative pension reforms in the context of global finance. Hence it focuses on the international capital flows that ought to be induced by differential aging of the various regions of the world, as depicted by the UN demographic projections. The first section exhibits the stylized facts which suggest that a world equilibrium approach is appropriate and leads to an analysis of the convergence processes. The second section lays out the analytical structure of the world model and detail our choices of calibrating. The third section presents a baseline scenario of the world economy in the XXIth century. The fourth and final section analyses European public pension reforms scenarios.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Equipe INGENUE, 2001. "Macroeconomic consequences of pension reforms in Europe: an investigation with the INGENUE world model," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2001-07, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  • Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:0107
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    1. Jones, Charles I, 1997. "Convergence Revisited," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 2(2), pages 131-153, July.
    2. Thierry Chauveau & Rahim Loufir, 1995. "L'avenir des régimes publics de retraite dans les pays du G7," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 52(1), pages 49-103.
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    10. William Perraudin & Thierry Pujol, 1991. "L'harmonisation fiscale en Europe et l'économie française : une approche en équilibre général," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 245-272.
    11. Bernhard Fischer & Helmut Reisen, 1995. "Réorienter les fonds de retraite vers les marchés émergents," Cahiers de politique économique du Centre de Développement de l'OCDE 9, OECD Publishing.
    12. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
    13. Raffelhuschen, Bernd & Risa, Alf Erling, 1995. "Reforming social security in a small open economy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 469-485, September.
    14. Broer, D. Peter & Lassila, Jukka, . "Pension Policies and Public Debt in Dynamic CGE Models," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 23, December.
    15. Turalay Kenc & Serdar Sayan, 1998. "Transmission of Demographic Shock Effects from Large to Small," GE, Growth, Math methods 9804001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Dave Turner & Claude Giorno & Alain de Serres & Ann Vourc'h & Pete Richardson, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Global Aging: Issues, Answers, More Questions," MEA discussion paper series 04055, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    2. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    3. Yvonne Adema & Lex Meijdam & Harrie A. A Verbon, 2005. "The International Spillover Effects of Pension Reform," CESifo Working Paper Series 1540, CESifo Group Munich.
    4. Luca, MARCHIORI, 2007. "ChinAfrica : How can the Sino-African cooperation be beneficial for Africa ?," Discussion Papers (ECON - Département des Sciences Economiques) 2007014, Université catholique de Louvain, Département des Sciences Economiques.
    5. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/2089 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kieran Mc Morrow & Werner Röger, 2003. "Economic and financial market consequences of ageing populations," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 182, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    7. Jacques Le Cacheux, 2002. "Globalisation financière, vieillissement et convergence mondiale. Une exploration de quelques scénarios," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 47-101.
    8. de la Croix, David & Docquier, Frederic & Liegeois, Philippe, 2007. "Income growth in the 21st century: Forecasts with an overlapping generations model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 621-635.
    9. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Sommer, Mathias, 2005. "Aging and asset prices," Papers 07-29, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    10. Börsch-Supan, Axel, 2004. "Global aging : issues, answers, more questions," Papers 07-28, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    11. Yvonne Adema & Lex Meijdam & Harrie Verbon, 2009. "The international spillover effects of pension reform," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 16(5), pages 670-696, October.
    12. Axel Börsch-Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi-Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    13. Frederic Gonand, 2014. "Dynamic Impacts on Growth and Intergenerational Effects of Energy Transition in a Time of Fiscal Consolidation," Working Papers 1401, Chaire Economie du climat.
    14. Alexander Ludwig, 2005. "Moment estimation in Auerbach-Kotlikoff models: How well do they match the data?," MEA discussion paper series 05093, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    15. Melanie Lührmann, 2003. "Demographic Change, Foresight and International Capital Flows," MEA discussion paper series 03038, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    16. Tim Callen & Warwick J. McKibbin & Nicoletta Batini, 2006. "The Global Impact of Demographic Change," IMF Working Papers 06/9, International Monetary Fund.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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