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Macroeconomic consequences of pension reforms in Europe: an investigation with the INGENUE world model

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    This paper presents some results of the computable, general-equilibrium, multiregional overlapping-generations model INGENUE. The purpose of this research is to analyse the issues relating to wealth accumulation and alternative pension reforms in the context of global finance. Hence it focuses on the international capital flows that ought to be induced by differential aging of the various regions of the world, as depicted by the UN demographic projections. The first section exhibits the stylized facts which suggest that a world equilibrium approach is appropriate and leads to an analysis of the convergence processes. The second section lays out the analytical structure of the world model and detail our choices of calibrating. The third section presents a baseline scenario of the world economy in the XXIth century. The fourth and final section analyses European public pension reforms scenarios.

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    File URL: http://www.cepremap.fr/depot/couv_orange/co0116.pdf
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    Paper provided by CEPREMAP in its series CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) with number 0116.

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    Length: 38 pages
    Date of creation: 2001
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:cpm:cepmap:0116
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    1. Charles I. Jones, . "Convergence Revisited," Working Papers 96006, Stanford University, Department of Economics.
    2. Bernhard Fischer & Helmut Reisen, 1995. "Réorienter les fonds de retraite vers les marchés émergents," Cahiers de politique économique du Centre de Développement de l'OCDE 9, OECD Publishing.
    3. Broer, Peter D. & Lassila, Jukka, . "Pension Policies and Public Debt in Dynamic CGE Models," ETLA A, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy, number 23.
    4. repec:cai:reofsp:reof_p1991_37n1_0245 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. William Perraudin & Thierry Pujol, 1991. "L'harmonisation fiscale en Europe et l'économie française : une approche en équilibre général," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 37(1), pages 245-272.
    6. Robert E. Lucas, 2000. "Some Macroeconomics for the 21st Century," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 159-168, Winter.
    7. Buiter, Willem H, 1981. "Time Preference and International Lending and Borrowing in an Overlapping-Generations Model," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 769-97, August.
    8. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Modigliani, Franco, 1985. "Life Cycle, Individual Thrift and the Wealth of Nations," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 1985-1, Nobel Prize Committee.
    10. Paul A. Samuelson, 1958. "An Exact Consumption-Loan Model of Interest with or without the Social Contrivance of Money," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66, pages 467.
    11. Turalay Kenc & Serdar Sayan, 1998. "Transmission of Demographic Shock Effects from Large to Small," GE, Growth, Math methods 9804001, EconWPA.
    12. Raffelhuschen, Bernd & Risa, Alf Erling, 1995. "Reforming social security in a small open economy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 469-485, September.
    13. Dave Turner & Claude Giorno & Alain de Serres & Ann Vourc'h & Pete Richardson, 1998. "The Macroeconomic Implications of Ageing in a Global Context," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 193, OECD Publishing.
    14. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 1996. "Foundations of International Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262150476, June.
    15. Paul Evans, 1997. "How Fast Do Economies Converge?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 219-225, May.
    16. Jonathan Temple, 1999. "The New Growth Evidence," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(1), pages 112-156, March.
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