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Transmission of Demographic Shock Effects from Large to Small

Author

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  • Turalay Kenc

    (Birkbeck College, University of London, UK)

  • Serdar Sayan

    (Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey)

Abstract

This paper addresses an issue that has been overlooked in the literature on the effects of population ageing: Transmission onto small countries of the economic effects of population ageing, a natural, demographic outcome of the shock that many large industrial countries experienced in the form of a baby boom in the late 1940s and early 1950s. It is argued in the paper that international commodity and capital flows provide channels for the transmission of these effects that include changes in the terms of trade and interest rates in large countries. The issue is considered in the context of possible effects on Turkey of the demographic shock effects transmitted from Europe. The discussion is carried out in reference to the simulation results from an overlapping generations, general equilibrium model parametrised to mimic the current state of four largest members of the EU and Turkey. The simulation exercises lead to the following conclusions: First, changes in the age composition of Turkish population to occur in the course of the country’s own demographic transition will affect the time paths of consumption, savings, investment and output substantially. Secondly, when they are transmitted onto Turkey, the economic effects of baby boomers’ ageing in the EU will magnify the effects of the demographic transition in this country. This is a finding with implications for long term growth prospects of a country, and appears to be relevant to other small countries whose close economic ties with the industrial nations with ageing populations make them vulnerable to the effects of population ageing even if they have relatively young populations now.

Suggested Citation

  • Turalay Kenc & Serdar Sayan, 1998. "Transmission of Demographic Shock Effects from Large to Small," GE, Growth, Math methods 9804001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpge:9804001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Jacques Le Cacheux & Vincent Touzé, 2002. "Les modèles d'équilibre général calculable à générations imbriquées. Enjeux, méthodes et résultats," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 80(1), pages 87-113.
    2. Arezki, Rabah, 2010. "Asymmetric demographic shocks and institutions: The impact on international capital flows and welfare," MPRA Paper 27683, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Kenc, Turalay & Sayan, Serdar, 2001. "Demographic shock transmission from large to small countries: An overlapping generations CGE analysis," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 677-702, August.
    4. Marcel Mérette & Patrick Georges, 2009. "Demographic Changes and the Gains from Globalisation: An Overlapping Generations CGE Analysis," Working Papers 0903E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    5. M. Aglietta & J. Chateau & J. Fayolle & M. Juillard & J. Le Cacheux & G. Legarrec & V. Touzé, 2002. "Macroeconomic consequences of pension reforms in Europe:," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 216, Society for Computational Economics.
    6. Aglietta, Michel & Chateau, Jean & Fayolle, Jacky & Juillard, Michel & Le Cacheux, Jacques & Le Garrec, Gilles & Touze, Vincent, 2007. "Pension reforms in Europe: An investigation with a computable OLG world model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-505, May.
    7. Equipe INGENUE, 2001. "Macroeconomic consequences of pension reforms in Europe: an investigation with the INGENUE world model," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 0116, CEPREMAP.
    8. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2091 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. SADAHIRO Akira & SHIMASAWA Manabu, 2004. "Ageing policy reforms and international capital flow in a computable two-country OLG model," ESRI Discussion paper series 097, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic Shocks and Ageing Populations; Overlapping Generations; General Equilibrium; Simulation Models; Turkey and the EU.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • F40 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - General
    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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