IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Transmission of Demographic Shock Effects from Large to Small

  • Turalay Kenc

    (Birkbeck College, University of London, UK)

  • Serdar Sayan

    (Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey)

This paper addresses an issue that has been overlooked in the literature on the effects of population ageing: Transmission onto small countries of the economic effects of population ageing, a natural, demographic outcome of the shock that many large industrial countries experienced in the form of a baby boom in the late 1940s and early 1950s. It is argued in the paper that international commodity and capital flows provide channels for the transmission of these effects that include changes in the terms of trade and interest rates in large countries. The issue is considered in the context of possible effects on Turkey of the demographic shock effects transmitted from Europe. The discussion is carried out in reference to the simulation results from an overlapping generations, general equilibrium model parametrised to mimic the current state of four largest members of the EU and Turkey. The simulation exercises lead to the following conclusions: First, changes in the age composition of Turkish population to occur in the course of the country’s own demographic transition will affect the time paths of consumption, savings, investment and output substantially. Secondly, when they are transmitted onto Turkey, the economic effects of baby boomers’ ageing in the EU will magnify the effects of the demographic transition in this country. This is a finding with implications for long term growth prospects of a country, and appears to be relevant to other small countries whose close economic ties with the industrial nations with ageing populations make them vulnerable to the effects of population ageing even if they have relatively young populations now.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/ge/papers/9804/9804001.pdf
Download Restriction: no

File URL: http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/ge/papers/9804/9804001.ps.gz
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by EconWPA in its series GE, Growth, Math methods with number 9804001.

as
in new window

Length: 20 pages
Date of creation: 01 Apr 1998
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpge:9804001
Note: Type of Document - PostScript Document; prepared on IBM PC; to print on HP 6MP/PostScript; pages: 20 ; figures: Submitted in EPS Format (FIG1.EPS thru FIG5.EPS). Text was originally prepared in Word for Windows 6.0 and submitted via ftp in PS format. Figures were originally created in TeX and submitted via ftp in EPS format.
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://econwpa.repec.org

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Broer, D Peter & Westerhout, Ed W M T & Bovenberg, A Lans, 1994. " Taxation, Pensions and Saving in a Small Open Economy," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(3), pages 403-24.
  2. Mankiw, N Gregory & Rotemberg, Julio J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1985. "Intertemporal Substitution in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 100(1), pages 225-51, February.
  3. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Dynamics of an Aging Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 2797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. W. R. M. Perraudin & Thierry Pujol, 1990. "European Fiscal Harmonization and the French Economy," IMF Working Papers 90/96, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Feldstein, Martin & Horioka, Charles, 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 314-29, June.
  6. W. G. Gale & J. K. Scholz, . "Intergenerational transfers and the accumulation of wealth," Institute for Research on Poverty Discussion Papers 1019-93, University of Wisconsin Institute for Research on Poverty.
  7. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Summers, Lawrence H, 1981. "The Role of Intergenerational Transfers in Aggregate Capital Accumulation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 89(4), pages 706-32, August.
  8. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
  9. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & John Sabelhaus, 1996. "Understanding the Postwar Decline in U.S. Saving: A Cohort Analysis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 315-407.
  10. Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 1-14, May.
  11. repec:cup:macdyn:v:1:y:1997:i:1:p:7-44 is not listed on IDEAS
  12. Hannu Törmä & Thomas Rutherford & Risto Vaittinen, 1995. "What Will EU Membership and the Value-Added Tax Reform Do to Finnish Food Economy? - A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Discussion Papers 88, Government Institute for Economic Research Finland (VATT).
  13. Hum, Derek & Simpson, Wayne, 1994. " Labour Supply Estimation and Public Policy," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(1), pages 57-81, March.
  14. HUANG, HE & IMROHOROG[caron]LU, SELAHATTIN & SARGENT, THOMAS J., 1997. "Two Computations To Fund Social Security," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 7-44, January.
  15. Patterson, Kerry D & Pesaran, Bahram, 1992. "The Intertemporal Elasticity of Substitution in Consumption in the United States and the United Kingdom," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(4), pages 573-84, November.
  16. Steven J. Davis, 1992. "Cross-Country Patterns of Change in Relative Wages," NBER Working Papers 4085, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Lawrance, Emily C, 1991. "Poverty and the Rate of Time Preference: Evidence from Panel Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(1), pages 54-77, February.
  18. Paul van den Noord & Richard Herd, 1993. "Pension Liabilities in the Seven Major Economies," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 142, OECD Publishing.
  19. repec:bil:bilpap:963 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Mercenier, Jean & Yeldan, Erinc, 1997. "On Turkey's trade policy: Is a customs union with Europe enough?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 871-880, April.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wpa:wuwpge:9804001. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (EconWPA)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.