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Risk, Return and Portfolio Allocation under Alternative Pension Arrangements with Imperfect Financial Markets

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  • David Miles
  • Ales Cerny

Abstract

This paper uses stochastic simulations on calibrated models to assess the steady state impact of different pension arrangements in an environment where financial markets are less than perfect. Surprisingly little is known about the optimal split between funded and unfunded systems when there are sources of uninsurable risk that are allocated in different ways by different types of pension system and where there are imperfections in financial markets (eg transactions costs or adverse selection) . This paper calculates the expected welfare of agents in different economies where in the steady state the importance of unfunded, state pensions differs. We estimate how the optimal level of unfunded, state pensions depends on rate of return and income risks and also upon the actuarial fairness of annuity contracts. We focus on the case of Japan where aging is rapid and unfunded pensions are currently generous.

Suggested Citation

  • David Miles & Ales Cerny, 2001. "Risk, Return and Portfolio Allocation under Alternative Pension Arrangements with Imperfect Financial Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 441, CESifo.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_441
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Patricia Apps & Ray Rees, 2002. "Fertility, Dependency and Social Security," Australian Journal of Labour Economics (AJLE), Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre (BCEC), Curtin Business School, vol. 5(4), pages 569-585, December.

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