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The future of pension systems in Europe. A reappraisal

Author

Listed:
  • Michele Boldrin
  • Juan J. Dolado
  • Juan F. Jimeno
  • Franco Peracchi

Abstract

In this paper we examine and ultimately challenge the traditional viewpoint on the future of current pension systems in Europe, according to which the effects of the ageing bomb will inevitably bring down our unfunded PA YG public pension systems. First, we claim that the projected dramatic increase in the pension burden in mostly due to labour market problems and the generosity of the system, rather than to demographic factors. Secondly, we conclude that a fully funded system cannot be achieved without a substantial reduction in current pension payments unless it is financed by issuing earnmarked public debt. Finally we claim that a socially efficient pension system should be a mixed one, partly funded and partly PA VG, on the basis of optimal portfolio allocation in a context of uncertain returns to both human and physical capital and on the role ofPAYG for financing the accumulation of human capital.
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Suggested Citation

  • Michele Boldrin & Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno & Franco Peracchi, "undated". "The future of pension systems in Europe. A reappraisal," Working Papers 99-08, FEDEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:99-08
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    Cited by:

    1. Tito Boeri & Pietro Garibaldi & Espen R. Moen, 2022. "In medio stat victus: Labor Demand Effects of an Increase in the Retirement Age," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(2), pages 519-556, April.
    2. D'Amato, Marcello & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2010. "Political intergenerational risk sharing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 628-637, October.
    3. Jiménez-Martín, Sergi & Labeaga, José M. & Martínez-Granado, Maite, 1999. "Health status and retirement decisison for older european couples," UC3M Working papers. Economics 6170, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    4. Juan F. Jimeno, "undated". "Demografía, empleo, salarios y pensiones," Working Papers 2002-04, FEDEA.
    5. Vincenzo Galasso, 2012. "The Political Feasibility of Postponing Retirement," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(4), pages 27-31, December.
    6. Juan F. Jimeno, 2015. "Long-lasting consequences of the European crisis," Working Papers 1522, Banco de España.
    7. Juan F. Jimeno, "undated". "Incentivos y desigualdad en el sistema español de pensiones contributivas de jubilación," Working Papers 2002-13, FEDEA.
    8. Piekkola, Hannu & Deschryvere, Matthias, 2004. "Retirement Decisions and Option Values: Their Application Regarding Finland," Discussion Papers 951, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
    9. Juan F. Jimeno, "undated". "El sistema de pensiones contributivas en España: Cuestiones básicas y perspectivas en el medio plazo," Working Papers 2000-15, FEDEA.
    10. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Vincenzo Galasso, 2003. "Early Retirement," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 12-36, January.
    11. Carlos Vidal-Meliá & Inmaculada Domínguez-Fabian, 2005. "The Spanish Pension System: Issues Of Introducing Notional Defined Contribution Accounts," Public Economics 0504006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Siyan Chen & Saul Desiderio, 2024. "Does increasing the retirement age increase youth unemployment? Evidence from an agent-based macro model," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 811-847, December.
    13. Milan Vodopivec, 2004. "Income Support for the Unemployed : Issues and Options," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 14922, April.
    14. Laura Mayoral & Evi Pappa, 2022. "Introduction to the special issue in honor of Juan Jose Dolado," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 1-9, May.
    15. Bermejo Patón, Fernando & Febrero Paños, Eladio & Uxó González, Jorge, 2015. "La sostenibilidad del sistema español de pensiones: Una aproximación alternativa/Sustainability of the Spanish Pension System: An Alternative View," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 33, pages 783-800, Septiembr.
    16. repec:ces:ifodic:v:10:y:2012:i:4:p:19074540 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Angel de la Fuente, 2009. "Series enlazadas de algunos agregados económicos regionales, 1955-2007. Versión 1.1," Economic Reports 02-09, FEDEA.
    18. Clara Isabel González & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Michele Boldrin, 2008. "Immigration and Social Security in Spain," Working Papers 2008-36, FEDEA.
    19. Vincenzo Galasso, 2012. "The Political Feasibility of Postponing Retirement," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(04), pages 27-31, December.
    20. Bishnu, Monisankar & Wang, Min, 2017. "The political intergenerational welfare state," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 93-110.
    21. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4094 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Luc Behaghel & Eve Caroli & Muriel Roger, 2014. "Age-biased Technical and Organizational Change, Training and Employment Prospects of Older Workers," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(322), pages 368-389, April.
    23. Tito Boeri & Jan van Ours, 2013. "The Economics of Imperfect Labor Markets: Second Edition," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 10142.
    24. Juan Carlos Conesa & Carlos Garriga, 2001. "Sistema Fiscal y Reforma de la Seguridad Social," Working Papers in Economics 67, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    25. Galasso, Vincenzo & D'Amato, Marcello, 2002. "Aggregate Risk, Political Constraints and Social Security Design," CEPR Discussion Papers 3330, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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