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The future of pension systems in Europe. A reappraisal

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  • Michele Boldrin
  • Juan J. Dolado
  • Juan F. Jimeno
  • Franco Peracchi

Abstract

In this paper we examine and ultimately challenge the traditional viewpoint on the future of current pension systems in Europe, according to which the effects of the ageing bomb will inevitably bring down our unfunded PA YG public pension systems. First, we claim that the projected dramatic increase in the pension burden in mostly due to labour market problems and the generosity of the system, rather than to demographic factors. Secondly, we conclude that a fully funded system cannot be achieved without a substantial reduction in current pension payments unless it is financed by issuing earnmarked public debt. Finally we claim that a socially efficient pension system should be a mixed one, partly funded and partly PA VG, on the basis of optimal portfolio allocation in a context of uncertain returns to both human and physical capital and on the role ofPAYG for financing the accumulation of human capital.
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Suggested Citation

  • Michele Boldrin & Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno & Franco Peracchi, "undated". "The future of pension systems in Europe. A reappraisal," Working Papers 99-08, FEDEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:99-08
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Feldstein, Martin, 1996. "The Missing Piece in Policy Analysis: Social Security Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 1-14, May.
    2. Miles, David, 1999. "Modelling the Impact of Demographic Change upon the Economy," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 1-36, January.
    3. Martin Feldstein, 1995. "Would Privatizing Social Security Raise Economic Welfare?," NBER Working Papers 5281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1996. "Privatization of Social Security: How It Works and Why It Matters," NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 10, pages 1-32 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Mitchell, Olivia S & Zeldes, Stephen P, 1996. "Social Security Privatization: A Structure for Analysis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(2), pages 363-367, May.
    6. Peter A. Diamond, 1997. "Macroeconomics Aspects of Social Security Reform," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 1-88.
    7. Montes Alonso, Ana & Boldrin, Michele, 1998. "Intergenerational transfer institutions public education and public pensions," UC3M Working papers. Economics 6148, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    8. E.P. Davis, 1998. "Pension Fund Reform and European Financial Markets," FMG Special Papers sp107, Financial Markets Group.
    9. Iben, Andreas & Miles, David K, 1998. "The Reform of Pension Systems: Winners and Losers Across Generations," CEPR Discussion Papers 1943, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Martin Feldstein & Andrew Samwick, 1998. "The Transition Path in Privatizing Social Security," NBER Chapters,in: Privatizing Social Security, pages 215-264 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Holzmann, Robert, 1997. "On economic benefits and fiscal requirements of moving from unfunded to funded pensions," Financiamiento para el Desarrollo 48, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    12. Diamond, P. A., 1977. "A framework for social security analysis," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 275-298, December.
    13. Robert C. Merton, 1983. "On the Role of Social Security as a Means for Efficient Risk Sharing in an Economy Where Human Capital Is Not Tradable," NBER Chapters,in: Financial Aspects of the United States Pension System, pages 325-358 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
    15. Modigliani, Franco. & Ceprini, Marialuisa E. A. & Muralidhar, Arun Sundarram., 1999. "An MIT solution to the social security crisis," Working papers WP 4051-99., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    16. David Miles & Allan Timmermann, 1999. "Risk sharing and transition costs in the reform of pension systems in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 251-286, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. D'Amato, Marcello & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2010. "Political intergenerational risk sharing," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 628-637, October.
    2. repec:ces:ifodic:v:10:y:2012:i:4:p:19074540 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Luc Behaghel & Eve Caroli & Muriel Roger, 2014. "Age-biased Technical and Organizational Change, Training and Employment Prospects of Older Workers," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(322), pages 368-389, April.
    4. Martínez-Granado, Maite & Labeaga, José M. & Jiménez-Martín, Sergi, 1999. "Health status and retirement decisison for older european couples," UC3M Working papers. Economics 6170, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
    5. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Vincenzo Galasso, 2003. "Early Retirement," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(1), pages 12-36, January.
    6. Juan F. Jimeno, "undated". "Demografía, empleo, salarios y pensiones," Working Papers 2002-04, FEDEA.
    7. Vincenzo Galasso, 2012. "The Political Feasibility of Postponing Retirement," ifo DICE Report, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 10(4), pages 27-31, December.
    8. Clara Isabel González & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Michele Boldrin, 2008. "Immigration and Social Security in Spain," Working Papers 2008-36, FEDEA.
    9. Juan F. Jimeno, 2015. "Long-lasting consequences of the European crisis," Working Papers 1522, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    10. Juan F. Jimeno, "undated". "Incentivos y desigualdad en el sistema español de pensiones contributivas de jubilación," Working Papers 2002-13, FEDEA.
    11. Bishnu, Monisankar & Wang, Min, 2017. "The political intergenerational welfare state," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 93-110.
    12. repec:dau:papers:123456789/4094 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Juan F. Jimeno, "undated". "El sistema de pensiones contributivas en España: Cuestiones básicas y perspectivas en el medio plazo," Working Papers 2000-15, FEDEA.
    14. Carlos Vidal-Meliá & Inmaculada Domínguez-Fabian, 2005. "The Spanish Pension System: Issues Of Introducing Notional Defined Contribution Accounts," Public Economics 0504006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. repec:dau:papers:123456789/7243 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Milan Vodopivec, 2004. "Income Support for the Unemployed : Issues and Options," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 14922, August.
    17. D'Amato, Marcello & Galasso, Vincenzo, 2002. "Aggregate Risk, Political Constraints and Social Security Design," CEPR Discussion Papers 3330, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.

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