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Immigration and Social Security in Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Clara Isabel González
  • J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz
  • Michele Boldrin

Abstract

We try to build a quantitative-theoretical framework to understand the impact of immigration on the Spanish pension system, both during the last ten years and, more importantly, during the future fifty years. In other words, we look at the recent past in a tentative to predict the future. Because we are perfectly aware of the intrinsic impossibility of predicting future economic events at an horizon longer than a few days, we interpret our simulations and predictions with a very large of clinical judgement. It is not that we do not trust them: as far as we can tell, given the information available today, these are the best predictions we can think of. On the other hand, being quite aware of the dramatic limitations in the information available to us, we spend most of our time pointing out the multiple reasons why our predictions may turn out to be completely wrong. In this sense, all we are attempting here is to offer a frame of reference for an educated policy discussion, and for further, more powerful and deeper, economic research.

Suggested Citation

  • Clara Isabel González & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Michele Boldrin, 2008. "Immigration and Social Security in Spain," Working Papers 2008-36, FEDEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2008-36
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Irse para Volver
      by J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz in Nada Es Gratis on 2012-10-25 11:00:24
    2. Repasando la Dinámica Reciente de la Población en España.
      by J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz in Nada Es Gratis on 2014-07-17 13:02:11

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    2. Dã Az-Gimã‰Nez, Javier & Dã Az-Saavedra, Juliã N, 2017. "The future of Spanish pensions," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 233-265, April.
    3. Russo, Giuseppe & Salsano, Francesco, 2019. "Electoral systems and immigration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González, 2016. "From Bismarck to Beveridge: the other pension reform in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 461-490, November.
    5. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González, 2013. "Reforma de pensiones 2011 en España," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 204(1), pages 9-44, March.
    6. Conde-Ruiz, J. Ignacio & Gonzalez, Clara I., 2012. "Spain 2011 Pension Reform," Working Papers 2012-03, FEDEA.
    7. Mari Kangasniemi & Matilde Mas & Catherine Robinson & Lorenzo Serrano, 2012. "The economic impact of migration: productivity analysis for Spain and the UK," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 333-343, December.
    8. Javier Suarez, 2010. "The Spanish Crisis: Background and Policy Challenges," Working Papers wp2010_1005, CEMFI.
    9. Conde Ruiz, José Ignacio. & Gonzalez, Clara I., 2012. "Reforma de pensiones 2011 en España: una primera valoración," Economic Reports 01-2012, FEDEA.

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