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Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty, Communication and Transparency


  • Rafael Domenech

    (University of Valencia)

  • Ángel Melguizo

    (BBVA Research Department)


In this paper we suggest a set of indicators about the future performance of the Spanish public pension system and a suitable method of representing their uncertainty, in order to improve the communication to the public opinion about its main future challenges. Spain seems a particularly interesting case in Europe to illustrate our proposals, since the social security system has been in surplus for nine consecutive years, in sharp contrast to the projections made just a decade ago, but, at the same time, most projections foresee for Spain one of the highest increases in public expenditure among EU countries due to ageing. We argue that simple, transparent, credible, public and periodic indicators, which take explicitly into account the uncertainty about future demographic, economic and institutional developments, may contribute to improve the debate on the policies needed to strengthen the pension system.

Suggested Citation

  • Rafael Domenech & Ángel Melguizo, 2008. "Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty, Communication and Transparency," Working Papers 0803, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
  • Handle: RePEc:iei:wpaper:0803

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Angel de la Fuente & MarÌa GundÌn, "undated". "El sistema de financiaciÛn de las comunidades autÛnomas de rÈgimen com˙n: un an·lisis crÌtico y algunas propuestas de reforma," Studies on the Spanish Economy 236, FEDEA.
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    Cited by:

    1. Angel de la Fuente, 2015. "A Simple Model of Aggregate Pension Expenditure," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 212(1), pages 13-50, March.
    2. Angel de la Fuente & Rafael Doménech, 2011. "El impacto sobre el gasto de la reforma de las pensiones: una primera estimación," Economic Reports 03-2011, FEDEA.
    3. Javier Vazquez Grenno, 2010. "Spanish pension system: Population aging and immigration policy," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 195(4), pages 37-64, december.
    4. Clara Isabel González & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Michele Boldrin, 2008. "Immigration and Social Security in Spain," Working Papers 2008-36, FEDEA.

    More about this item


    pensions; projections; communication; uncertainty;

    JEL classification:

    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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