Spanish Pension System: Population Aging and Immigration Policy
There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension system will become unsustainable in the next decades. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pensions' sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Oce (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) selective immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of tting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. The main results are the following. The current system would not incur de cits until 2018, from then de cits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure in pensions practically would double (from 8.3 % in 2005 to 17.2 % in 2050). A selective immigration policy -towards foreign young people- would help, but does not solve the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines a pensions' growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2029.
|Date of creation:||Apr 2009|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Campus Bellaterra. 08193 Bellaterra.|
Phone: 34-93 581 1680
Fax: 34-93 581 2292
Web page: http://www.uab.cat/departament/economia-aplicada/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Juan F. Jimeno & Juan A. Rojas & Sergio Puente, 2006.
"Modeling the impact of aging on social security expenditures,"
0601, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
- Jimeno, Juan F. & Rojas, Juan A. & Puente, Sergio, 2008. "Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-224, March.
- Kjetil Storesletten, 2000.
"Sustaining Fiscal Policy through Immigration,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 300-323, April.
- Kjetil Storesletten, . "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Homapage Papers _005, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Storesletten, Kjetil, 1998. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration," Seminar Papers 664, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Poul Schou, 2005.
"Immigration, Integration and Fiscal Sustainability,"
DREAM Working Paper Series
200502, Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM.
- Poul Schou, 2006. "Immigration, integration and fiscal sustainability," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(4), pages 671-689, October.
- M. Dolores Collado & IÒigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe & Guadalupe Valera, 2004.
"Quantifying the Impact of Immigration on the Spanish Welfare State,"
International Tax and Public Finance,
Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 11(3), pages 335-353, 05.
- M. Dolores Collado & Iñigo Iturbe Ormaetxe & Guadalupe Valera, 2002. "Quantifying The Impact Of Immigration On The Spanish Welfare State," Working Papers. Serie AD 2002-04, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhüschen & Jan Walliser, .
"Can Immigration Alleviate the Demographic Burden?,"
EPRU Working Paper Series
99-17, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Castro Martín Teresa & Roig Vila Marta, 2007. "Immigrant Mothers, Spanish Babies. Childbearing Patterns of Foreign Women in Spain," Working Papers 201086, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
- Balmaseda, Manuel & Melguizo, Angel & Taguas, David, 2006.
"Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en España
[Reforming the Spanish contributory pension system]," MPRA Paper 19574, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Mar 2006.
- Angel Melguizo & Manuel Balmaseda & David Taguas, 2005. "Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en Espana," Working Papers 0505, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Díaz-Giménez, Javier & Díaz-Saavedra, Julián, 2006. "The Demographic and Educational Transitions and the Sustainability of the Spanish Public Pension System," MPRA Paper 69287, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- John P. Martin & Edward R. Whitehouse, 2008.
"Reforming Retirement-Income Systems: Lessons from the Recent Experiences of OECD Countries,"
OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers
66, OECD Publishing.
- Martin, John P. & Whitehouse, Edward, 2008. "Reforming Retirement-Income Systems: Lessons from the Recent Experiences of OECD Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 3521, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Joan Gil & Miguel Angel López García & Jorge Onrubia & Cío Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2007.
"A projection model of the contributory pension expenditure of the spanish social security system: 2004-2050,"
Hacienda Pública Española,
IEF, vol. 182(3), pages 75-116, September.
- Joan Gil & Miguel-Ángel López-García & Jorge Onrubia & Concepción Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, . "A Projection Model Of The Contributory Pension Expenditure Of The Spanish Social Security System: 2004-2050," Working Papers 30-06 Classification-JEL , Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
- Javier Alonso Meseguer & José A. Herce, . "Balance del sistema de pensiones y boom migratorio en España. Proyecciones del modelo MODPENS de FEDEA a 2050," Working Papers 2003-02, FEDEA.
- David Blake & Les Mayhew, 2006. "On The Sustainability of the UK State Pension System in the Light of Population Ageing and Declining Fertility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages F286-F305, 06.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
- Philip Oreopoulos & Alan J. Auerbach, 1999. "Analyzing the Fiscal Impact of U.S. Immigration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 176-180, May.
- Rafael Domenech & Ángel Melguizo, 2008.
"Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty, Communication and Transparency,"
0803, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
- Rafael Domenech & Angel Melguizo, 2009. "Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty,Communication and Transparency," Working Papers 0911, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Julian Diaz-Saavedra, 2009.
"Delaying Retirement in Spain,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 147-167, January.
- Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Julian Diaz-Saavedra, 2008. "Code and data files for "Delaying Retirement in Spain"," Computer Codes 06-8, Review of Economic Dynamics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea0902. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Miquel Colobran)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.