Spanish pension system: Population aging and immigration policy
There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as a consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension systemwill become unsustainable in the decades coming. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pension sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) an immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of adjusting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. Themain results are the following. The current systemwill not incur deficits until 2022, fromthis point onwards deficits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure on pensions in terms of GDP will increased from 8.3% in 2009 to 17.0% in 2049. An immigration policy –aimed at foreign young people– would help, but would not ensure the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines pension growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2028.
Volume (Year): 195 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (december)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Avda. Cardenal Herrera Oria, 378, 28035 Madrid|
Web page: http://www.ief.es
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Poul Schou, 2005.
"Immigration, Integration and Fiscal Sustainability,"
DREAM Working Paper Series
200502, Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM.
- Poul Schou, 2006. "Immigration, integration and fiscal sustainability," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(4), pages 671-689, October.
- Díaz-Giménez, Javier & Díaz-Saavedra, Julián, 2006. "The Demographic and Educational Transitions and the Sustainability of the Spanish Public Pension System," MPRA Paper 69287, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhüschen & Jan Walliser, .
"Can Immigration Alleviate the Demographic Burden?,"
EPRU Working Paper Series
99-17, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Storesletten, Kjetil, 1998.
"Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration,"
664, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Juan F. Jimeno & Juan A. Rojas & Sergio Puente, 2006.
"Modeling the impact of aging on social security expenditures,"
0601, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
- Jimeno, Juan F. & Rojas, Juan A. & Puente, Sergio, 2008. "Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-224, March.
- Javier Alonso Meseguer & José A. Herce, . "Balance del sistema de pensiones y boom migratorio en España. Proyecciones del modelo MODPENS de FEDEA a 2050," Working Papers 2003-02, FEDEA.
- M. Dolores Collado & Iñigo Iturbe Ormaetxe & Guadalupe Valera, 2002.
"Quantifying The Impact Of Immigration On The Spanish Welfare State,"
Working Papers. Serie AD
2002-04, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- M. Dolores Collado & IÒigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe & Guadalupe Valera, 2004. "Quantifying the Impact of Immigration on the Spanish Welfare State," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 11(3), pages 335-353, 05.
- Angel Melguizo & Manuel Balmaseda & David Taguas, 2005.
"Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en Espana,"
0505, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Balmaseda, Manuel & Melguizo, Angel & Taguas, David, 2006.
"Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en España
[Reforming the Spanish contributory pension system]," MPRA Paper 19574, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Mar 2006.
- Balmaseda, Manuel & Melguizo, Angel & Taguas, David, 2006. "Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en España
- Rafael Domenech & Angel Melguizo, 2009.
"Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty,Communication and Transparency,"
0911, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Rafael Domenech & Ángel Melguizo, 2008. "Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty, Communication and Transparency," Working Papers 0803, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
- Castro Martín Teresa & Roig Vila Marta, 2007. "Immigrant Mothers, Spanish Babies. Childbearing Patterns of Foreign Women in Spain," Working Papers 201086, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
- Joan Gil & Miguel Angel López García & Jorge Onrubia & Cío Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2007.
"A projection model of the contributory pension expenditure of the spanish social security system: 2004-2050,"
Hacienda Pública Española,
IEF, vol. 182(3), pages 75-116, September.
- Joan Gil & Miguel-Ángel López-García & Jorge Onrubia & Concepción Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, . "A Projection Model Of The Contributory Pension Expenditure Of The Spanish Social Security System: 2004-2050," Working Papers 30-06 Classification-JEL , Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
- Martin, John P. & Whitehouse, Edward, 2008.
"Reforming Retirement-Income Systems: Lessons from the Recent Experiences of OECD Countries,"
IZA Discussion Papers
3521, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- John P. Martin & Edward R. Whitehouse, 2008. "Reforming Retirement-Income Systems: Lessons from the Recent Experiences of OECD Countries," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 66, OECD Publishing.
- Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Julian Diaz-Saavedra, 2009.
"Delaying Retirement in Spain,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 147-167, January.
- Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Julian Diaz-Saavedra, 2008. "Code and data files for "Delaying Retirement in Spain"," Computer Codes 06-8, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Philip Oreopoulos & Alan J. Auerbach, 1999. "Analyzing the Fiscal Impact of U.S. Immigration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 176-180, May.
- James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
- David Blake & Les Mayhew, 2006. "On The Sustainability of the UK State Pension System in the Light of Population Ageing and Declining Fertility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages F286-F305, 06.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2010:v:195:i:4:p:37-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ana Belén Miquel Burgos)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.