Spanish pension system: Population aging and immigration policy
There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as a consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension systemwill become unsustainable in the decades coming. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pension sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) an immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of adjusting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. Themain results are the following. The current systemwill not incur deficits until 2022, fromthis point onwards deficits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure on pensions in terms of GDP will increased from 8.3% in 2009 to 17.0% in 2049. An immigration policy –aimed at foreign young people– would help, but would not ensure the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines pension growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2028.
Volume (Year): 195 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (december)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.ief.es
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Jimeno, Juan F. & Rojas, Juan A. & Puente, Sergio, 2008.
"Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures,"
Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-224, March.
- Juan F. Jimeno & Juan A. Rojas & Sergio Puente, 2006. "Modeling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers 0601, Banco de Espa�a.
- Javier Alonso Meseguer & José A. Herce, . "Balance del sistema de pensiones y boom migratorio en España. Proyecciones del modelo MODPENS de FEDEA a 2050," Working Papers 2003-02, FEDEA.
- Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhüschen & Jan Walliser, .
"Can Immigration Alleviate the Demographic Burden?,"
EPRU Working Paper Series
99-17, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
- M. Dolores Collado & IÒigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe & Guadalupe Valera, 2004.
"Quantifying the Impact of Immigration on the Spanish Welfare State,"
International Tax and Public Finance,
Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 335-353, 05.
- M. Dolores Collado & Iñigo Iturbe Ormaetxe & Guadalupe Valera, 2002. "Quantifying The Impact Of Immigration On The Spanish Welfare State," Working Papers. Serie AD 2002-04, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Storesletten, Kjetil, 1998.
"Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration,"
664, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- Joan Gil & Miguel Angel López García & Jorge Onrubia & Cío Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2007.
"A projection model of the contributory pension expenditure of the spanish social security system: 2004-2050,"
Hacienda Pública Española,
IEF, vol. 182(3), pages 75-116, September.
- Joan Gil & Miguel-Ángel López-García & Jorge Onrubia & Concepción Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, . "A Projection Model Of The Contributory Pension Expenditure Of The Spanish Social Security System: 2004-2050," Working Papers 30-06 Classification-JEL , Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
- Castro Martín Teresa & Roig Vila Marta, 2007. "Immigrant Mothers, Spanish Babies. Childbearing Patterns of Foreign Women in Spain," Working Papers 201086, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
- Rafael Domenech & Ángel Melguizo, 2008.
"Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty, Communication and Transparency,"
0803, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
- Rafael Domenech & Angel Melguizo, 2009. "Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty,Communication and Transparency," Working Papers 0911, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Angel Melguizo & Manuel Balmaseda & David Taguas, 2005.
"Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en Espana,"
0505, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Balmaseda, Manuel & Melguizo, Angel & Taguas, David, 2006.
"Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en España
[Reforming the Spanish contributory pension system]," MPRA Paper 19574, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Mar 2006.
- Balmaseda, Manuel & Melguizo, Angel & Taguas, David, 2006. "Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en España
- Poul Schou, 2006. "Immigration, integration and fiscal sustainability," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 19(4), pages 671-689, October.
- John P. Martin & Edward R. Whitehouse, 2008.
"Reforming Retirement-Income Systems: Lessons from the Recent Experiences of OECD Countries,"
OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers
66, OECD Publishing.
- Martin, John P. & Whitehouse, Edward, 2008. "Reforming Retirement-Income Systems: Lessons from the Recent Experiences of OECD Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 3521, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Philip Oreopoulos & Alan J. Auerbach, 1999. "Analyzing the Fiscal Impact of U.S. Immigration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 176-180, May.
- David Blake & Les Mayhew, 2006. "On The Sustainability of the UK State Pension System in the Light of Population Ageing and Declining Fertility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages F286-F305, 06.
- Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Julian Diaz-Saavedra, 2009.
"Delaying Retirement in Spain,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 147-167, January.
- Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Julian Diaz-Saavedra, 2008. "Code and data files for "Delaying Retirement in Spain"," Computer Codes 06-8, Review of Economic Dynamics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2010:v:195:i:4:p:37-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ana Belén Miquel Burgos)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.