Spanish pension system: Population aging and immigration policy
There is a widespread consensus in the literature that, as a consequence of the demographic transition, the current Spanish pension systemwill become unsustainable in the decades coming. In this article we evaluate the sustainability of the contributory pension sub-system, taking into account the demographic projections by the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). A baseline scenario is projected as well as several reforms are simulated, focusing on: (i) an immigration policy, (ii) changes in the way of adjusting the pensions and (iii) increase of the legal age of retirement up to 68. Themain results are the following. The current systemwill not incur deficits until 2022, fromthis point onwards deficits will begin to be accumulated. The expenditure on pensions in terms of GDP will increased from 8.3% in 2009 to 17.0% in 2049. An immigration policy –aimed at foreign young people– would help, but would not ensure the long-term sustainability of the current system. A policy that combines pension growth at a pace lower than productivity growth and extends the legal age of retirement up to 68 would give solvency to the system beyond 2028.
Volume (Year): 195 (2010)
Issue (Month): 4 (december)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Avda. Cardenal Herrera Oria, 378, 28035 Madrid|
Web page: http://www.ief.es
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Philip Oreopoulos & Alan J. Auerbach, 1999. "Analyzing the Fiscal Impact of U.S. Immigration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 176-180, May.
- John P. Martin & Edward R. Whitehouse, 2008.
"Reforming Retirement-Income Systems: Lessons from the Recent Experiences of OECD Countries,"
OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers
66, OECD Publishing.
- Martin, John P. & Whitehouse, Edward, 2008. "Reforming Retirement-Income Systems: Lessons from the Recent Experiences of OECD Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 3521, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Storesletten, Kjetil, 1998.
"Sustaining Fiscal Policy Through Immigration,"
664, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
- M. Dolores Collado & IÒigo Iturbe-Ormaetxe & Guadalupe Valera, 2004.
"Quantifying the Impact of Immigration on the Spanish Welfare State,"
International Tax and Public Finance,
Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 335-353, 05.
- M. Dolores Collado & Iñigo Iturbe Ormaetxe & Guadalupe Valera, 2002. "Quantifying The Impact Of Immigration On The Spanish Welfare State," Working Papers. Serie AD 2002-04, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
- Rafael Domenech & Angel Melguizo, 2009.
"Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty,Communication and Transparency,"
0911, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- Rafael Domenech & Ángel Melguizo, 2008. "Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty, Communication and Transparency," Working Papers 0803, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
- Holger Bonin & Bernd Raffelhüschen & Jan Walliser, 2000.
"Can Immigration Alleviate the Demographic Burden?,"
FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis,
Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 57(1), pages 1-, September.
- James Feyrer, 2007. "Demographics and Productivity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 100-109, February.
- Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Julian Diaz-Saavedra, 2009.
"Delaying Retirement in Spain,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 147-167, January.
- Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Julian Diaz-Saavedra, 2008. "Code and data files for "Delaying Retirement in Spain"," Computer Codes 06-8, Review of Economic Dynamics.
- Díaz-Giménez, Javier & Díaz-Saavedra, Julián, 2006. "The Demographic and Educational Transitions and the Sustainability of the Spanish Public Pension System," MPRA Paper 69287, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Javier Alonso Meseguer & José A. Herce, . "Balance del sistema de pensiones y boom migratorio en España. Proyecciones del modelo MODPENS de FEDEA a 2050," Working Papers 2003-02, FEDEA.
- David Blake & Les Mayhew, 2006. "On The Sustainability of the UK State Pension System in the Light of Population Ageing and Declining Fertility," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(512), pages F286-F305, 06.
- Jimeno, Juan F. & Rojas, Juan A. & Puente, Sergio, 2008.
"Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures,"
Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-224, March.
- Juan F. Jimeno & Juan A. Rojas & Sergio Puente, 2006. "Modeling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Occasional Papers 0601, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
- Poul Schou, 2006.
"Immigration, integration and fiscal sustainability,"
Journal of Population Economics,
Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 19(4), pages 671-689, October.
- Poul Schou, 2005. "Immigration, Integration and Fiscal Sustainability," DREAM Working Paper Series 200502, Danish Rational Economic Agents Model, DREAM.
- Castro Martín Teresa & Roig Vila Marta, 2007. "Immigrant Mothers, Spanish Babies. Childbearing Patterns of Foreign Women in Spain," Working Papers 201086, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
- Balmaseda, Manuel & Melguizo, Angel & Taguas, David, 2006.
"Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en España
[Reforming the Spanish contributory pension system]," MPRA Paper 19574, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 01 Mar 2006.
- Angel Melguizo & Manuel Balmaseda & David Taguas, 2005. "Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en Espana," Working Papers 0505, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Jaypee Sevilla, 2001. "Economic Growth and the Demographic Transition," NBER Working Papers 8685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Joan Gil & Miguel-Ángel López-García & Jorge Onrubia & Concepción Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, .
"A Projection Model Of The Contributory Pension Expenditure Of The Spanish Social Security System: 2004-2050,"
30-06 Classification-JEL , Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
- Joan Gil & Miguel Angel López García & Jorge Onrubia & Cío Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2007. "A projection model of the contributory pension expenditure of the spanish social security system: 2004-2050," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 182(3), pages 75-116, September.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hpe:journl:y:2010:v:195:i:4:p:37-64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ana Belén Miquel Burgos)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.