A Projection Model Of The Contributory Pension Expenditure Of The Spanish Social Security System: 2004-2050
. The need for long-term fiscal projections is self evident. Of these projections, pension expenditure is one of the most important since firstly it represents a large share of total expenditure, and secondly because of the positive correlation between this variable and demographic ageing. In this paper, we develop a model to project contributory pension expenditures in the Spanish Social Security System disaggregating the results by pension category and sex. The most salient of the results obtained is the expected steady growth of total expenditure in contributory pensions. This would lie around 15% of GDP around 2045 compared to its initial level of barely 8% even though the baseline scenario incorporates a substantial recovery of employment and female participation rates. By pension categories, retirement pensions are those that determine the tendency of total expenditure evolution. Interesting conclusions can also be extracted from the analysis by sex. For instance, even accounting for an increase in female retirement pensions due to their higher participation, the corresponding increase in widow male pensions implies a higher total increase of the total number of contributory pensions accruing to men.
|Date of creation:|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Avda. Cardenal Herrera Oria, 378, 28035 Madrid|
Web page: http://www.ief.es
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- José María Arranz & Carlos García-Serrano, . "¿Qué Ha Sucedido Con La Estabilidad Del Empleo En España?. Un Análisis Desagregado Con Datos De La Epa: 1987-2003(*)," Working Papers 4-04 Classification-JEL :, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
- Meyerson, Noah & Sabelhaus, John, 2000. "Uncertainty in Social Security Trust Fund Projections," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 53(n. 3), pages 515-30, September.
- Miguel-Angel López García, 2005.
"La vivienda y la reforma fiscal de 1998: un ejercicio de simulación,"
Hacienda Pública Española,
IEF, vol. 175(4), pages 123-147, december.
- Miguel Ángel López García, . "La Vivienda Y La Reforma Fiscal De 1998: Un Ejercicio De Simulación(*)," Working Papers 7-04 Classification-JEL :, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
- Herce San Miguel José Antonio & Ahn Namkee & Alonso Meseguer Javier, 2003. "Gastos sanitario y envejecimiento de la población en España," Working Papers 201015, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
- Juan F. Jimeno & Juan A. Rojas & Sergio Puente, 2006.
"Modeling the impact of aging on social security expenditures,"
0601, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.
- Jimeno, Juan F. & Rojas, Juan A. & Puente, Sergio, 2008. "Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-224, March.
- Edgardo Ruggiero & Peter S. Heller & Menachem Katz & Robert A Feldman & Richard Hemming & Peter Kohnert & Ziba Farhadian & Donogh McDonald & Ahsan S. Mansur & Bernard Nivollet, 1986. "Aging and Social Expenditure in the Major Industrial Countries, 1980-2025," IMF Occasional Papers 47, International Monetary Fund.
- Franco, Daniele & Marino, Maria Rosaria & Zotteri, Stefania, 2004. "Pension Expenditure Projections, Pension Liabilities and European Union Fiscal Rules," Discussion Paper 231, Center for Intergenerational Studies, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
- Fidel Picos Sánchez, . "Modelo Dual De Irpf Y Equidad: Un Nuevo Enfoque Teórico Y Su Aplicación Al Caso Español," Working Papers 8-04 Classification-JEL :, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hpe:wpaper:y:2006:i:30. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ana Belén Miquel Burgos)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.