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A Projection Model Of The Contributory Pension Expenditure Of The Spanish Social Security System: 2004-2050

  • Joan Gil

    (Universidad de Barcelona.)

  • Miguel-Ángel López-García

    (Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona.)

  • Jorge Onrubia
  • Concepción Patxot

    ()

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid.)

  • Guadalupe Souto

. The need for long-term fiscal projections is self evident. Of these projections, pension expenditure is one of the most important since firstly it represents a large share of total expenditure, and secondly because of the positive correlation between this variable and demographic ageing. In this paper, we develop a model to project contributory pension expenditures in the Spanish Social Security System disaggregating the results by pension category and sex. The most salient of the results obtained is the expected steady growth of total expenditure in contributory pensions. This would lie around 15% of GDP around 2045 compared to its initial level of barely 8% even though the baseline scenario incorporates a substantial recovery of employment and female participation rates. By pension categories, retirement pensions are those that determine the tendency of total expenditure evolution. Interesting conclusions can also be extracted from the analysis by sex. For instance, even accounting for an increase in female retirement pensions due to their higher participation, the corresponding increase in widow male pensions implies a higher total increase of the total number of contributory pensions accruing to men.

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Paper provided by Instituto de Estudios Fiscales in its series Working Papers with number 30-06 Classification-JEL : E62, H55..

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Handle: RePEc:hpe:wpaper:y:2006:i:30
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  1. Miguel-Angel López García, 2005. "La vivienda y la reforma fiscal de 1998: un ejercicio de simulación," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 175(4), pages 123-147, december.
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  3. Jimeno, Juan F. & Rojas, Juan A. & Puente, Sergio, 2008. "Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-224, March.
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  5. Fidel Picos Sánchez, . "Modelo Dual De Irpf Y Equidad: Un Nuevo Enfoque Teórico Y Su Aplicación Al Caso Español," Working Papers 8-04 Classification-JEL :, Instituto de Estudios Fiscales.
  6. Herce San Miguel José Antonio & Ahn Namkee & Alonso Meseguer Javier, 2003. "Gastos sanitario y envejecimiento de la población en España," Working Papers 201015, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation.
  7. Meyerson, Noah & Sabelhaus, John, 2000. "Uncertainty in Social Security Trust Fund Projections," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 53(n. 3), pages 515-30, September.
  8. Edgardo Ruggiero & Peter S. Heller & Menachem Katz & Robert Alan Feldman & Richard Hemming & Peter Kohnert & Ziba Farhadian & Donogh McDonald & Ahsan S. Mansur & Bernard Nivollet, 1986. "Aging and Social Expenditure in the Major Industrial Countries, 1980-2025," IMF Occasional Papers 47, International Monetary Fund.
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