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Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures

  • Jimeno, Juan F.
  • Rojas, Juan A.
  • Puente, Sergio

In this paper we survey the features of different approaches available in the literature used to study the effects of the aging of the population on Social Security expenditures. We comment on the weaknesses and strengths of each of them, and perform a quantitative analysis by comparing the results they imply in the particular case of the Spanish economy. Finally, we highlight some elements of the modeling strategies on which more evidence is needed for a correct evaluation of the problem at hand.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 25 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (March)
Pages: 201-224

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:25:y:2008:i:2:p:201-224
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

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  1. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Heiss, Florian & Winter, Joachim, 2000. "Pension reform, capital markets, and the rate of return," Discussion Papers 589, Institut fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre und Statistik, Abteilung fuer Volkswirtschaftslehre.
  2. Angus Deaton & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Christina Paxson, 2000. "Social Security and Inequality over the Life Cycle," NBER Working Papers 7570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Alfonso R. Sánchez Martín, 2001. "Endogenous Retirement And Public Pension System Reform In Spain," Economics Working Papers we013503, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  4. Luis A. Puch & Omar Licandro, 1997. "Are there any special features in the Spanish business cycle?," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 21(2), pages 361-394, May.
  5. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
  6. Martin Feldstein & Jeffrey B Liebman, 2002. "The Distributional Effects of an Investment-Based Social Security System," Working Papers 02-08, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  7. Coronado Julia Lynn & Fullerton Don & Glass Thomas, 2011. "The Progressivity of Social Security," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 11(1), pages 1-45, November.
  8. Rojas, Juan A., 2005. "Life-cycle earnings, cohort size effects and social security: a quantitative exploration," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 465-485, February.
  9. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1999. "Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 575-615, July.
  10. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324 Elsevier.
  11. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
  12. James M. Poterba, 2004. "Impact of population aging on financial markets in developed countries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 43-53.
  13. Michele Boldrin & Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno & Franco Peracchi, 1999. "The future of pensions in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 287-320, October.
  14. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
  15. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 2002. "Distributional Effects in a General Equilibrium Analysis of Social Security," NBER Chapters, in: The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform, pages 327-370 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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