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Demographic change, pension reform and redistribution in Spain

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  • Alfonso R Sánchez-Martín

    () (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide)

  • Virginia Sánchez Marcos

    () (Departamento de Economía, Universidad de Cantabria)

Abstract

Recent demographic changes have spurred pension reforms aimed at restoring the financial sustainability of PAYG systems. In Spain, the most significant reforms were undertaken in 1997 and in 2002, entailing an increase in the length of the averaging period in the pension formula, an increase in the penalties for early retirement and for retirement with short contributive records, a bonus for retirement after the age of 65, and a change in the eligibility conditions. In this paper we use an Applied General Equilibrium model populated by two-earners households to evaluate the redistributive impact of the pension system and the financial and welfare consequences of these reforms on households that differ in their education, region of residence and year of birth. The initial redistribution is assessed by comparing the internal rate of return provided to different households. We find that they vary considerable depending on education and cohort. Regarding the reforms, we find an increase in the implicit debt of the pension system after the reforms, and important changes in welfare. Households up to secondary education born between 1935 and 1975 are predicted to benefit from the reform, while the welfare of younger cohorts will be hit by higher taxes and unfavorable macroeconomic changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Alfonso R Sánchez-Martín & Virginia Sánchez Marcos, 2008. "Demographic change, pension reform and redistribution in Spain," Working Papers 08.04, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pab:wpaper:08.04
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Rojas, Juan A., 2005. "Life-cycle earnings, cohort size effects and social security: a quantitative exploration," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(2-3), pages 465-485, February.
    2. Luis A. Puch & Omar Licandro, 1997. "Are there any special features in the Spanish business cycle?," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 21(2), pages 361-394, May.
    3. Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Alfonso R. Sánchez Martín, 2007. "An evaluation of the life cycle effects of minimum pensions on retirement behavior," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(5), pages 923-950.
    4. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1999. "Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 575-615, July.
    5. Michele Boldrin & Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Franco Peracchi, 2004. "Micro-Modeling of Retirement Behavior in Spain," NBER Chapters,in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Micro-Estimation, pages 499-578 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Sánchez Martín, Alfonso R., 2010. "Endogenous retirement and public pension system reform in Spain," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 336-349, January.
    7. Mark Huggett & Gustavo Ventura, 1999. "On the Distributional Effects of Social Security Reform," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 498-531, July.
    8. Hurd, Michael D, 1989. "Mortality Risk and Bequests," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(4), pages 779-813, July.
    9. Juan Carlos Conesa & Carlos Garriga, 2001. "Sistema Fiscal y Reforma de la Seguridad Social," Working Papers in Economics 67, Universitat de Barcelona. Espai de Recerca en Economia.
    10. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
    11. Juan F. Jimeno & Omar Licandro, 1999. "La tasa interna de rentabilidad y el equilibrio financiero del sistema español de pensiones de jubilación," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 23(1), pages 129-143, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Kaygusuz, Remzi, 2015. "Social security and two-earner households," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 163-178.
    2. Clara Isabel González & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Michele Boldrin, 2008. "Immigration and Social Security in Spain," Working Papers 2008-36, FEDEA.
    3. José Francisco Bellod Redondo, 2010. "Pensiones – La Aritmética Del Miedo," Contribuciones a la Economía, Grupo Eumed.net (Universidad de Málaga), issue 2010-03, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social Security; Pension Reform; Applied General Equilibrium; Redistribution;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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