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Modeling the impact of aging on social security expenditures

  • Juan F. Jimeno

    ()

    (Banco de España
    Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)
    Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA))

  • Juan A. Rojas

    ()

    (Banco de España)

  • Sergio Puente

    ()

    (Banco de España)

In this paper we survey the features of different approaches available in the literature used to study the effects of the aging of the population on Social Security expenditures. We comment on the weaknesses and strengths of each of them, and perform a quantitative analysis by comparing the results they imply in the particular case of the Spanish economy. Finally, we highlight some elements of the modeling strategies on which more evidence is needed for a correct evaluation of the problem at hand.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosOcasionales/06/Fic/do0601e.pdf
File Function: First version, January 2006
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Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Occasional Papers with number 0601.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:opaper:0601
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.bde.es/
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  1. Martin Feldstein & Jeffrey B Liebman, 2002. "The Distributional Effects of an Investment-Based Social Security System," Working Papers 02-08, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  2. Juan A. Rojas, . "Life-cycle Earnings Cohort Size Effects and Social Security. A Quantitative Exploration," Studies on the Spanish Economy 88, FEDEA.
  3. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1999. "Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 575-615, July.
  4. Alfonso R Sánchez-Martín, 2008. "Endogenous Retirement and Public Pension System Reform in Spain," Working Papers 08.06, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Economics.
  5. Julia Lynn Coronado & Don Fullerton & Thomas Glass, 2000. "The Progressivity of Social Security," NBER Working Papers 7520, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Kent Smetters & Jan Walliser, 2002. "Distributional Effects in a General Equilibrium Analysis of Social Security," NBER Chapters, in: The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform, pages 327-370 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Luis A. Puch & Omar Licandro, 1997. "Are there any special features in the Spanish business cycle?," Investigaciones Economicas, Fundación SEPI, vol. 21(2), pages 361-394, May.
  8. Feldstein, Martin & Liebman, Jeffrey B., 2002. "Social security," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 32, pages 2245-2324 Elsevier.
  9. Börsch-Supan, Axel H. & Heiss, Florian & Ludwig, Alexander & Winter, Joachim, 2003. "Pension reform, capital markets and the rate of return," Munich Reprints in Economics 20200, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
  10. Angus S. Deaton & Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Christina Paxson, 2002. "Social Security and Inequality over the Life Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: The Distributional Aspects of Social Security and Social Security Reform, pages 115-148 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Michele Boldrin & Juan J. Dolado & Juan F. Jimeno & Franco Peracchi, 1999. "The future of pensions in Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 14(29), pages 287-320, October.
  12. James Poterba, 2004. "The Impact of Population Aging on Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 10851, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. Deborah Roseveare & Willi Leibfritz & Douglas Fore & Eckhard Wurzel, 1996. "Ageing Populations, Pension Systems and Government Budgets: Simulations for 20 OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 168, OECD Publishing.
  14. James M. Poterba, 2004. "Impact of population aging on financial markets in developed countries," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q IV, pages 43-53.
  15. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
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