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Immigration and Social Security in Spain

  • Clara I. Gonzalez
  • José Ignacio Conde Ruiz
  • Michele Boldrin

The objective of this paper is to understand the impact of immigration on the Spanish pension system during the next fifty years by building aquantitative-theoretical framework. In order to carry out the exercise of projection of revenues and expenditures in the Spanish pension system, we have developed an Overlapping Generation Model where individuals differ by age, gender, skill and nationality. The Cohort Component Population Projection Method is used for the demographic projections, and for the labor market scenario we have simulated the full labor history of all of our different workers for the period-taking into account the future evolution of the educational levels and five possible situations during their labor history (employed, self-employed, unemployed, disable and inactive). In a first baseline scenario the system will be in deficit around year according to the last official estimations. The arrival of a large number of foreign workers is offering the Social Security System roughly five years of additional time to correct its important underlying unbalances. However after this period, the structural problems will come back and may be even magnified by the presence of an additional number of retired immigrants. Even if immigration reaches its total assimilation in the labor market it will not be sufficient to avoid that the pension system will be in deficit. However, immigration is allowing us to obtain very valuable additional time in order to carry out the necessary reforms.

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File URL: http://documentos.fedea.net/pubs/dt/2009/dt-2009-26.pdf
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Paper provided by FEDEA in its series Working Papers with number 2009-26.

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Date of creation: Jul 2009
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Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2009-26
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.fedea.net

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  1. Catalina Amuedo-Dorantes & Sara de la Rica, 2007. "Immigrants’ Responsiveness to Labor Market Conditions and their Impact on Regional Employment Disparities: Evidence from Spain," Working Papers 2007-34, FEDEA.
  2. Hipólito Simón & Esteban Sanromá & Raúl Ramos, 2008. "Labour segregation and immigrant and native-born wage distributions in Spain: an analysis using matched employer–employee data," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 135-168, June.
  3. Alfonso SANCHEZ-MARTIN & Virginia SANCHEZ-MARCOS, . "Demographic Change, Pension Reform and Redistribution in Spain," EcoMod2008 23800123, EcoMod.
  4. Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Alfonso R. Sánchez, 2003. "An evaluation of the life-cycle effects of minimum pensions on retirement behavior," Economics Working Papers 715, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Jun 2006.
  5. Mario Izquierdo & Juan Jimeno & Juan Rojas, 2010. "On the aggregate effects of immigration in Spain," SERIEs, Spanish Economic Association, vol. 1(4), pages 409-432, September.
  6. Joan Gil & Miguel Angel López García & Jorge Onrubia & Cío Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2007. "A projection model of the contributory pension expenditure of the spanish social security system: 2004-2050," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 182(3), pages 75-116, September.
  7. Mario Izquierdo & Aitor Lacuesta, 2006. "Wage inequality in Spain: recent developments," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0615, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Raquel Carrasco & Juan F. Jimeno & Ana Carolina Ortega, 2004. "The Effect Of Immigration On The Employment Opportunities Of Native-Born Workers: Some Evidence For Spain," Economics Working Papers we046122, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  9. Virginia Sanchez-Marcos & Alfonso Sanchez Martin, 2004. "Can Social Security be welfare improving when there is demographic uncertainty?," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 163, Society for Computational Economics.
  10. Angel Melguizo & Manuel Balmaseda & David Taguas, 2005. "Las reformas necesarias en el sistema de pensiones contributivas en Espana," Working Papers 0505, BBVA Bank, Economic Research Department.
  11. Michele Boldrin & Sergi Jimenez-Martin & Franco Peracchi, 1999. "Social Security and Retirement in Spain," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security and Retirement around the World, pages 305-353 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Jimeno, Juan F. & Rojas, Juan A. & Puente, Sergio, 2008. "Modelling the impact of aging on social security expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 201-224, March.
  13. Michele Boldrin & Sergi Jiménez-Martín & Franco Peracchi, 2004. "Micro-Modeling of Retirement Behavior in Spain," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Micro-Estimation, pages 499-578 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. J. Ignacio Conde-Rui & Javier Alonso, . "El futuro de las pensiones en España: Perspectivas y lecciones," Working Papers 2004-03, FEDEA.
  15. Raquel Carrasco & Juan F. Jimeno & Ana Carolina Ortega, 2008. "The impact of immigration on the wage structure : Spain 1995-2002," Economics Working Papers we080603, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  16. Javier Diaz-Gimenez & Julian Diaz-Saavedra, 2009. "Delaying Retirement in Spain," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(1), pages 147-167, January.
  17. Vincenzo Galasso, 2006. "The Political Future of Social Security in Aging Societies," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262072734, June.
  18. Agar Brugiavini & Franco Peracchi & David A. Wise, 2002. "Pensions and Retirement Incentives. A Tale of Three Countries: Italy, Spain and the USA," Giornale degli Economisti, GDE (Giornale degli Economisti e Annali di Economia), Bocconi University, vol. 61(2), pages 131-169, December.
  19. Amuedo Dorantes, Catalina & De la Rica Goiricelaya, Sara, 2006. "Labor Market Assimilation of Recent Immigrants in Spain," DFAEII Working Papers 2006-01, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
  20. Rafael Domenech & Ángel Melguizo, 2008. "Projecting Pension Expenditures in Spain: On Uncertainty, Communication and Transparency," Working Papers 0803, International Economics Institute, University of Valencia.
  21. Kjetil Storesletten, 2000. "Sustaining Fiscal Policy through Immigration," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 108(2), pages 300-323, April.
  22. Boldrin Michele & Jiménez-Martín Sergi & Peracchi Franco, 2001. "Sistema de pensiones y mercado de trabajo en España," Books, Fundacion BBVA / BBVA Foundation, edition 1, number 201120.
  23. Gruber, Jonathan & Wise, David A. (ed.), 2004. "Social Security Programs and Retirement around the World," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226310183.
  24. Raquel Carrasco & Juan Ramón García & Ana Carolina Ortega, . "The Effect of Immigration on the Employment Opportunities of Native-Born Workers: Some Evidence for Spain," Working Papers 2004-17, FEDEA.
  25. Alfonso Sánchez & Virginia Sánchez Marcos, 2008. "Demographic Change, Pension Reform and Redistribution in Spain," Working Papers 2008-14, FEDEA.
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