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El futuro de las pensiones en España: Perspectivas y lecciones


  • J. Ignacio Conde-Rui
  • Javier Alonso


As European population is becoming older, the financial foundations of Europe’s state-pension systems are beginning to crumble. European governments must face the unpalatable truth that their current pensions schemes are not sustainable, and provide all the required information to voters so they can take their own decisions and accept changes. The first part of the paper collects in a comprehensive way, Spanish pensions expenditure future evolution estimated by different studies. All studies agree that by 2040, Spanish government overall unfounded pensions liabilities will be well above rational levels, if nothing is done before then; but differ on the figure of the deficit. Differences in the methodology used to estimate the generosity of the system (measured as the average pension?average productivity ratio) account for this discrepancy. The second part of the paper analyses how productivity gains are transferred to the pensions and to the average pension?average productivity ratio, in particular. For this purpose, two models have been used: i) a representative agent model (Alonso and Herce (2003)) and ii) an heterogeneous agents model (Jimeno 2002b). The first model examines the effect over the generosity of the system between price indexation (or the policy recommended by the Pacto de Toledo) and wage indexation. The second model completes the analysis considering the existence of a maximum pension fixed exogenously by law.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Ignacio Conde-Rui & Javier Alonso, "undated". "El futuro de las pensiones en España: Perspectivas y lecciones," Working Papers 2004-03, FEDEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2004-03

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    Cited by:

    1. Angel de la Fuente, 2015. "A Simple Model of Aggregate Pension Expenditure," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 212(1), pages 13-50, March.
    2. Javier Alonso Meseguer & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz, 2007. "Reforma de las pensiones: la experiencia internacional," Working Papers 2007-18, FEDEA.
    3. Oriol Roch & Manuela Bosch- Príncep & Isabel Morillo & Daniel Vilalta, 2015. "A revision of the revaluation index of Spanish pensions," UB Economics Working Papers 2015/322, Universitat de Barcelona, Facultat d'Economia i Empresa, UB Economics.
    4. Julián Díaz Saavedra, 2016. "Productividad y viabilidad del sistema Público de Pensiones," Hacienda Pública Española, IEF, vol. 218(3), pages 11-32, September.
    5. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "Spain; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 05/57, International Monetary Fund.
    6. J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González, 2016. "From Bismarck to Beveridge: the other pension reform in Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 461-490, November.
    7. Clara Isabel González & J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Michele Boldrin, 2008. "Immigration and Social Security in Spain," Working Papers 2008-36, FEDEA.
    8. José A. Herce, "undated". "Could this ever happen in Spain? Economic and policy aspects of a SARS-like episode," Working Papers 2004-09, FEDEA.
    9. Díaz-Giménez, Javier & Díaz-Saavedra, Julián, 2006. "The Demographic and Educational Transitions and the Sustainability of the Spanish Public Pension System," MPRA Paper 69287, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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