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Inmigración, Envejecimiento y Dividendo Demográfico: El caso de España en perspectiva

Author

Listed:
  • J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz
  • Clara I. González
  • Miguel Díaz Salazar

Abstract

Este artículo cuantifica el papel de la inmigración en el crecimiento del ingreso por habitante en España desde 2000 y ofrece una primera aproximación prospectiva con proyecciones oficiales. Combinamos (i) una descomposición contable del ingreso per cápita en productividad laboral, tasa de empleo y proporción de población en edad de trabajar; (ii) un contrafactual “sin inmigración” que elimina la aportación migratoria a población total, población en edad laboral y empleo manteniendo constante la productividad; y (iii) escenarios futuros con y sin entradas migratorias a partir de las proyecciones del INE. Hallamos que, entre 2000 y 2019, la inmigración mitigó alrededor del 60% del deterioro del dividendo demográfico; su efecto neto sobre la tasa de empleo fue prácticamente neutral en el largo periodo, pero claramente positivo en 2020–2024 (+0,22 puntos porcentuales anuales). Mirando al futuro, las entradas previstas amortiguan de forma creciente el lastre demográfico: la contribución adicional del canal demográfico asciende a 0,23 puntos porcentuales anuales en 2024–2030 y 2031–2040, y a 0,49 puntos en 2041–2050. Dado que mantenemos constante la productividad, estas estimaciones deben interpretarse como una cota inferior del impacto total. Los resultados tienen implicaciones para la política migratoria y de empleo en un contexto de envejecimiento acelerado.

Suggested Citation

  • J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz & Clara I. González & Miguel Díaz Salazar, 2026. "Inmigración, Envejecimiento y Dividendo Demográfico: El caso de España en perspectiva," Studies on the Spanish Economy eee2026-05, FEDEA.
    • Handle: RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2026-05
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    References listed on IDEAS

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