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The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists

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  • Guinnane, Timothy W.

Abstract

The historical fertility transition is the process by which much of Europe and North America went from high to low fertility in the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. This transformation is central to recent accounts of long-run economic growth. Prior to the transition, women bore as many as eight children each, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes was positive. Today, many women have no children at all, and the elasticity of fertility with respect to incomes is zero or even negative. This paper discusses the large literature on the historical fertility transition, focusing on what we do and do not know about the process. I stress some possible misunderstandings of the demographic literature, and discuss an agenda for future work.

Suggested Citation

  • Guinnane, Timothy W., 2010. "The Historical Fertility Transition: A Guide for Economists," Center Discussion Papers 95271, Yale University, Economic Growth Center.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:yaleeg:95271
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.95271
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumer/Household Economics; International Development; Labor and Human Capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • N30 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy - - - General, International, or Comparative

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