Malthus in Cointegration Space: A new look at living standards and population in pre-industrial England
We analyze Malthus' (1798) model when labor demand shifts persistently. The Malthusian ideas are formalized and derived in terms of stationarity and cointegration, and the implied restrictions are tested against English pre-industrial data 1560-1760. The evidence suggests a negligible marginal productivity effect of population on real income, implying that the Malthusian "check" relations should be analyzed as cointegrating relations. The data support highly significant preventive checks working via marriages, but weak (in-significant) positive checks. These results are remarkably clear-cut. We suggest a simple interpretation for the lack of response of real income to population, which is consistent with positive feed back effects from population on technology, à la Boserupian- and/or Smithian mechanisms. Recursive estimation confirms stable parameters and identify the end of our modified Malthusian regime.
|Date of creation:||Jul 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (+45) 35 32 30 10
Fax: +45 35 32 30 00
Web page: http://www.econ.ku.dk
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul Sharp & Jacob Weisdorf, 2007.
"From Preventative to Permissive Checks: The Changing Nature of the Malthusian Relationship between Nuptiality and the Price of Provisions in the Nineteenth Century,"
Oxford University Economic and Social History Series
_067, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Jacob Weisdorf & Paul Sharp, 2009. "From preventive to permissive checks: the changing nature of the Malthusian relationship between nuptiality and the price of provisions in the nineteenth century," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(1), pages 55-70, January.
- Paul Sharp & Jacob Weisdorf, 2007. "From Preventive to Permissive Checks: The changing nature of the Malthusian relationship between nuptiality and the price of provisions in the nineteenth century," Discussion Papers 07-20, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Paul Sharp & Jacob Weisdorf, 2007. "From Preventive to Permissive Checks: The Changing Nature of the Malthusian Relationship Between Nuptiality and the Price of Provisions in the Nineteenth Century," Economics Series Working Papers 67, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992.
"Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data,"
Journal of Policy Modeling,
Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
- Johansen, S., 1991. "Testing Weak Exogeneity and the Order of Cointegration in UK Money Demand Data," Papers 78, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
- Malthus, Thomas Robert, 1798. "An Essay on the Principle of Population," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number malthus1798.
- Michael Anderson & Ronald Lee, 2002. "Malthus in state space: Macro economic-demographic relations in English history, 1540 to 1870," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 195-220.
- Galor, Oded, 2005.
"From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory,"
Handbook of Economic Growth,
in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 171-293
- Oded_Galor, 2004. "From Stagnation to Growth:Unified Growth Theory," Working Papers 2004-15, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Oded Galor, 2004. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," GE, Growth, Math methods 0409003, EconWPA.
- Galor, Oded, 2004. "From Stagnation to Growth: Unified Growth Theory," CEPR Discussion Papers 4581, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Ronald Lee, 1987. "Population dynamics of humans and other animals," Demography, Springer, vol. 24(4), pages 443-465, November.
- Shekhar Aiyar & Carl-Johan Dalgaard & Omer Moav, 2008.
"Technological progress and regress in pre-industrial times,"
Journal of Economic Growth,
Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 125-144, June.
- Aiyar, Shekhar & Dalgaard, Carl-Johan & Moav, Omer, 2006. "Technological Progress and Regress in Pre-Industrial Times," CEPR Discussion Papers 5454, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- David Collard, 2001. "Malthus, Population, and the Generational Bargain," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 697-716, Winter.
- Gregory Clark, 2005.
"The Condition of the Working Class in England, 1209-2004,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(6), pages 1307-1340, December.
- Gregory Clark, 2005. "The Condition of the Working-Class in England, 1209-2004," Working Papers 539, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Lee, Ronald, 1973. "Population in Preindustrial England: An Econometric Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 581-607, November.
- Nicolini, Esteban A., 2007.
"Was Malthus right? A VAR analysis of economic and demographic interactions in pre-industrial England,"
European Review of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 99-121, April.
- Esteban A. Nicolini, 2006. "Was Malthus Right? A Var Analysis Of Economic And Demographic Interactions In Pre-Industrial England," Working Papers in Economic History wh060601, Universidad Carlos III, Instituto Figuerola de Historia y Ciencias Sociales.
- Gregory Clark, 2007.
"Introduction to A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World
[A Farewell to Alms: A Brief Economic History of the World]," Introductory Chapters, Princeton University Press.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:0816. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Thomas Hoffmann)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.