Malthus and the Industrial Revolution: Evidence from a Time-Varying VAR
In the process of economic development economies grow through various regimes, each characterized by different demographic-economic interactions. The changes in these interactions are key elements in different explanations of the escape from Malthusian stagnation. We employ time-varying vector autoregressions, an approach that allows tracking this transition for England in the period between 1541 and 1870. The empirical findings suggest that the link between real wages and population growth was at work until the 19th century. Furthermore, we document changes in the propagation mechanism from real wages on population growth over time that feature prominently in Unified Growth Theory. Most remarkably, in contrast to earlier empirical literature we find strong effects of income on mortality after the 1750s.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2014|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Leonhardstrasse 21, CH-8092 Zürich|
Phone: +41 44 632 42 39
Fax: +41 44 632 12 18
Web page: http://www.kof.ethz.ch
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nicolini, Esteban A., 2007.
"Was Malthus right? A VAR analysis of economic and demographic interactions in pre-industrial England,"
European Review of Economic History,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 99-121, April.
- Nicolini, Esteban A., 2006. "Was malthus right? a var analysis of economic and demographic interactions in pre-industrial England," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH wh060601, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
- Quamrul Ashraf & Oded Galor, 2010.
"Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
2010-01, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised May 2011.
- Quamrul Ashraf & Oded Galor, 2008. "Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusain Epoch: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 2008-14, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Quamrul Ashraf & Oded Galor, 2008. "Malthusian Population Dynamics: Theory and Evidence," Working Papers 2008-6, Brown University, Department of Economics.
- Quamrul Ashraf & Oded Galor, 2010. "Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch," Center for Development Economics 2010-07, Department of Economics, Williams College, revised May 2011.
- Quamrul Ashraf & Oded Galor, 2011. "Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch," NBER Working Papers 17037, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ashraf, Quamrul & Galor, Oded, 2008. "Dynamics and Stagnation in the Malthusian Epoch: Theory and Evidence," CEPR Discussion Papers 7057, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Crafts, Nicholas & Mills, Terence C., 2009. "From Malthus to Solow: How did the Malthusian economy really evolve?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 68-93, March.
- Gregory Clark, 2005.
"The Condition of the Working-Class in England, 1209-2004,"
539, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Gregory Clark, 2005. "The Condition of the Working Class in England, 1209-2004," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(6), pages 1307-1340, December.
- John Komlos & Marc Artzrouni, . ""Population Growth through History and the Escape from the Malthusian Trap: A Homeostatic Simulation Model," Articles by John Komlos 34, Department of Economics, University of Munich.
- Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, 2002.
"Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?,"
- Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem, 2002. "Does the Mortality Decline Promote Economic Growth?," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 411-39, December.
- Tamura, Robert, 2002. "Human capital and the switch from agriculture to industry," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 207-242, December.
- Ronald Lee, 1973. "Population in Preindustrial England: An Econometric Analysis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 87(4), pages 581-607.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:kof:wpskof:14-351. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.